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during this time of change, the
political activists who were most
successful on Capitol Hill were
those who kept their heads
without viewing things through
either distorting lens.
In Israel, where analysts tell
us democracy recently has tak-
en on a distinctly American cast
complete with obfuscating po-
litical consultants and MTV-like
political ads, much the same dy-
namic could be about to take
place.
The peace process is dead,
some say, or at least mortally
wounded; if Binyamin Ne-
tanyahu follows through on
campaign promises like his in-
sistence that Jerusalem isn't on
the negotiating table, or his
pledge to expand settlements,
an angry and demoralized
Palestinian population in-
evitably will return to the more
primal politics of the intifada,
Israel will lose all the diplomatic
gains of the past few years and
the burgeoning Israeli economy
will crash against a brick wall.
But others argue that the
Likud platform is mostly for
show.
Bibi is a politician, not an ide-
alogue, they soothe; he will find
ways to finesse issues such as
Jerusalem and Hebron without
producing a fatal stall in the ne-
gotiations.
He could even turn out to be
the most pro-peace process Is-
raeli leader ever — the always-
popular "Nixon in China"
theory, which suggests that only
a hard-liner like Menachem Be-
gin or Bibi Netanyahu can make
real peace with the Arabs.
Both views, again, are com-
prised largely of wishful think-
ing or unrealistic panic.
Mr. Netanyahu undoubtedly
will be restrained by factors
such as Israel's expanding econ-
omy, which is very much a prod-
uct of the peace process. And his
policies will be tempered by the
fact that few Israelis want to go
back to a time when their chil-
dren were patrolling the mean
streets of Gaza.
But it is equally naive to ex-
\-- pect that change will be mini-
mal, just as it was naive for
American analysts to argue that
the new Republican majority in
Congress would, in the end, act
like their deposed Democratic
counterparts.
Israeli voters clearly voted for
change, and Mr. Netanyahu
owes his success, in large mea-
sure, to constituencies that are
not interested in a minor recal-
ibration of Israeli policy. Mr. Ne-
tanyahu will not ignore that
mandate even as he tries to
make pragmatic decisions.
The results are likely to be
similar to those of the Republi-
can takeover of Congress: mo-
mentous change, but not all-out
revolution. 0
Donzi... America's Favorite Boat.
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(313) 671-6722
(810) 465-6191
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