Jerusalem
\—D
he day after winning the 1977 elections, Menachem Begin visited the
militant settlers of Eilon Moreh. They had defied the
previous Labor government policy by establishing an outpost near
Nablus, the biggest West Bank Arab town. "In a few weeks or months,"
the triumphant first Likud prime minister told them, "there will be
many Eilon Morehs!" When a foreign correspondent started to ask
about the "occupied territories," Mr. Begin roundly rebuked him: "These are not occu-
pied territories, these are liberated territories."
By the time Mr. Begin retired six years later, the tally of West
Bank settlements had risen from 23 to 112. The number of Jews liv-
ing beyond the pre-1967 "green line" border had soared more than
tenfold from 3,000 to 40,000 (it is now more like 140,000). Mr. Be-
gin, with the eager cooperation of his agriculture minister, Ariel
Sharon, had redrawn the map of Judea and Samaria (referred to
in the secular media as the West Bank).
A 10-year taboo on settling Jews amid the Arab towns and vil-
lages along the spine of Israel's pre-1967 border, which separated
it with the bulk of the Palestinian population centers, was seen
by Labor as Israel's readiness to withdraw from captured
territories in return for a negotiated peace. That was now
dead.
Shimon Peres and Yassir Arafat still are struggling to
unscramble the egg of all those Eilon Morehs. If Likud's
Binyamin "Bibi" Netanyahu emulates Mr. Begin and
overthrows another Labor government, even more com-
mitted to territorial compromise, can we expect a simi-
lar revolution after the May 29 elections?
Blurred Differences
Mr. Netanyahu, competing with Mr. Peres for the mid-
dle ground in Israel's first direct prime ministerial bal-
lot, is trying to blur their differences. Yet, between the
bland lines of his policy pronouncements, the gap exists.
If the peace process, the hallmark of this Labor govern-
ment, survives under Mr. Netanyahu, it will not be the
process of Yitzhak Rabin and Shimon Peres.
The Likud leader has reluctantly acknowledged that
the two Oslo agreements signed since September 1993
are a fact, though he hopes to renegotiate some of their
terms.
He says he won't try to reoccupy Gaza or any of the six
major West Bank towns from which Israel has redeployed.
He also has reversed an earlier pledge never to meet Mr.
Arafat. In the north, he believes he can win peace with
Syria without sacrificing the Golan, though how is far
from clear.
In economics, Mr. Netanyahu is an ardent advocate of
market economics, a legacy perhaps of his diplomatic stint
in the United States during the Reagan administration.
But Labor, once the guardian of socialism, is now no less
committed to privatization and opening the economy to
foreign investment and competition. If the past few years
of selling off public-sector assets has been slow and fal-
tering, it is because of the struggle to attract buyers at a
Eric Silver is a contributing writer to the Jerusalem
Report.
to expand settlement, largely frozen outside "greater
Jerusalem" by the present administration since 1992.
And he threatens to combat terrorism by sending Israeli
troops back on search and destroy missions in the evac-
uated Palestinian towns.
The Real Bibi
But the real speculation is over what Mr. Netanyahu
will do once in office. Will the 46-year-old Likud leop-
and surprise us by making the kind of concessions that
another arch-nationalist,
Charles de Gaulle, made
to get out of Algeria —
and sold to the French
people as no left-winger
could have done?
Some pundits predict
that Mr. Netanyahu's ap-
petite for power will force
him toward the center.
Others argue that ideolo-
gy still drives the party
that Mr. Begin built, and
that the hard-line, ex-
pansionist ex-generals —
Ariel Sharon and Rafael
Eitan — will call the
shots.
Shimon Peres has seen his lead diminish in recent weeks.
price that would make the
"He has not had a
switch worthwhile. And the
change
of mind. It's only
economy is thriving at an an-
tactics,"
says Yonatan
nual growth rate of 6 percent.
Shapiro,
a
Tel Aviv Uni-
If Likud does win, there
versity political sociologist
are rumblings in the business
and author of a history of
community about losing this
Mr.
Begin's road to pow-
"peace dividend." In fact, in
er.
"I
expect him to ex-
early May, some 350 of Is-
pand
settlements.
It's too
rael's top private industrial-
basic
to
the
whole
con-
ists, bankers and retailers
ception of the Likud's
turned out for a rally in sup-
Greater Israel ideology for
port of Mr. Peres.
him
to abandon it
Michael Strauss, of the
overnight. His supporters
Strauss dairy concern, told
are militant nationalists,
them: "Thanks to the peace
and the basis of their na-
process, I have built a net-
tionalism
is territory."
work of relations with multi-
Mr. Shapiro fears that
national companies. Their
"unless the Americans put
directors are constantly ask-
a lot of pressure on him,
ing me what will be after the
Netanyahu could turn the
elections. They are very con-
whole world against Is-
cerned. I tell myself, if they
rael.... But Netanyahu
are worried I should be wor-
won't yield willingly."
ried, too."
Yaron Ezrahi, a He-
So Mr. Netanyahu is keep-
brew University political
ing his neo-capitalism to him-
science professor and se-
self. He is hinting, however,
nior fellow of the Israel
—
T
sali
Reshef
that he would like to put to-
Democracy Institute, dis-
gether a national-unity ad-
agrees. "[Netanyahu] will
ministration. His spin doctors
move
to weaken the ex-
are projecting him as a consensus candidate, the one who
treme
right
of
his
own
party
to
increase
his ability to gov-
can deliver peace and security.
ern
in
the
direction
of
the
center,"
Mr.
Ezrahi says. "He
But Mr. Netanyahu diverges drastically from Mr. Peres
may
try
to
recruit
other
parties,
possibly
even Labor, into
in wanting limited autonomy to be the permanent, not
his
coalition
to
neutralize
Sharon
and
Eitan.
The alter-
the interim, status of the 2 million Palestinian inhabi-
and
violence."
intifada
native
is
returning
to
the
tants of the West Bank. He rejects any idea of a Pales-
Meanwhile, the left fears the worst. They already are
tinian state. Labor recently deleted resistance to such an
gearing
up for a campaign to stress that Mr. Netanyahu
entity from its platform.
is
no
moderate.
Without being too specific, Mr. Netanyahu promises
II
1
if Bibi is elected,
we'll be back in the
not-so-good old days."