I s rae
In Sh oc k, Again
The bombings in
Israel create tricky
ground for the Likud
and Labor leaders.
INA FRIEDMAN
ISRAEL CORRESPONDENT
sue terrorists as if there were no peace
process," he is essentially continuing
the policy laid down by the late Prime
Minister Yitzhak Rabin.
But unlike his predecessor, Mr.
Peres lacks the image of the tough-
minded "Mr. Security" that enabled
Rabin to take bold political decisions.
Instead, he must meet the difficult
challenge of pursuing the Oslo process
(of which he is the chief architect)
while convincing voters that he's not
"soft on the Arabs," placing their eco-
nomic welfare above Israel's securi-
ty.
When to lift the closure that was
reimposed on Sunday (and can hard-
ly continue for months on end) will
surely cost Mr. Peres much sleep be-
tween now and Election Day. And
how to balance his philosophy of
cooperation with the Palestinians
against the clamor for "separa-
tion" (which inevitably follows
each terror attack) will have to be
carefully calibrated to withstand
political pressures inside the La-
bor Party as well
as from the oppo- Israeli police and
soldiers inspect
Sition.
the wreckage of
The Likud, th°, the bus destroyed
must watch its
in downtown
step — above all,
Jerusalem.
by being careful
to avoid the impression that it is
making political capital out of a
national tragedy. For like Mr.
Peres, Binyamin Netanyahu suf-
fers from an image problem.
It began when he appeared at
the scene of the Dizengoff bus
bombing, in October 1994, and is-
sued a string of political state-
ments even before the debris had
been cleared. His restrained re-
sponse on Sunday — he refused
to discuss the political issues dur-
ing an hour of mourning, but left
that to lower-ranking colleagues
like Tsachi Hanegbi — suggests
a desire to project a more states-
man-like image.
How long he and his colleagues
can maintain that posture is an-
other question.
Though not a candidate for
election in Israel, Yassir Arafat is
the third political leader inti-
mately involved in the outcome
of the race and must also make
some tough decisions.
The consensus in Labor this
week is that the time has come
for the Palestinian leader to stop
dithering (as Israel's Chief of
Army Intellience recently
charged) and dismantle the "ter-
.
rorist infrastructure" of Hamas and
the Islamic Jihad once and for all.
Since last month, the circumstances
surrounding this old problem have
changed. After being elected presi-
dent of the Palestinian Authority by
a landslide, Mr. Arafat can no longer
plead that he lacks the official au-
thority to move against the terror
groups.
The Oslo II accord requires him "to
ensure the immediate, efficient and
effective handling of any incident in-
volving a threat or act of terrorism."
By giving him lists of suspected ter-
rorists operating in his territory, Is-
rael has already done half the work.
Now Mr. Arafat must decide with
whom he prefers to negotiate the per-
manent settlement after May 29th.
Precisely what effect Sunday's
bombing will have on the Israeli elec-
torate is still impossible to say. Poll-
sters who calculate the monthly
"Peace Index" for the Tami Steinmetz
Center for Peace Research at Tel Aviv
University say that traumatic events
like terror attacks — indeed, even the
assassination of the prime minister
— have not had a lasting impact on
political views.
The threat, however, is that ter-
rorists will strike again close to the
date of the vote (as they did near Jeri-
cho in 1988, costing Labor the elec-
tion). Hamas and the Islamic Jihad
undoubtedly know this. What re-
mains to be seen is whether Mr.
Arafat does, too — and what he in-
tends to do about it.
❑
AP/EYAL WARSI IAVSKY
eartbreaking," read Yediot Aharonot's
banner headline last Monday, sum-
ming up in a single word the mood in
Israel following the two terrorist
bombings that took the lives of 25 peo-
ple, injured more than 80 others, and
left thousands of Israelis to deal with
the emotional devastation.
Still, it is in the nature of things
that the political establishment was
already moving to assess the impli-
cations of the resumption of terror-
ism, especially in this sensitive
pre-election period.
Labor bears the brunt of that bur-
den, since the double bombing was
essentially a chronicle of deaths fore-
told. For weeks, Israel's security
organs had been warning of prepa-
rations by Islamic terror groups for a
spectacular terror attack. It came just
over 48 hours after Israel had lifted
a 12-day closure of the territories im-
posed specifically to prevent it.
When the extension of the closure
was discussed last week, the police,
General Security Services (Shabak),
and coordinator of activities in the ter-
ritories were all opposed to lifting it.
Only the army — citing the terrible
economic strain on the Palestinian
population — recommended that it
be ended.
Prime Minister Shimon Peres opt-
ed to take that advice. And once the
terrible human damage was done, it
has been been difficult to repair the
political damage by offering the well-
worn explanations that the closure is
at any rate no guarantee against a
lone suicide bomber, or that Hamas
and the Islamic Jihad don't need the
excuse of a special date (in this case
the second anniversary of the Hebron
massacre) to mount murderous at-
tacks.
Indeed, Mr. Peres finds himself in
a particularly ticklish position. In de-
ciding "to pursue the peace process as
if there were no terrorism, and to pur-