but this will not represent a real
increase.
Since the mid-1980s, when oil
prices dropped very sharply, the
Arab economies have been suf-
fering from serious financial and
economic problems.
Before the oil-price collapse,
poorer Arab countries benefit-
ed from generous foreign aid
from the richer Arab states. Now
they have to cope with little or
no aid from these countries.
Even more important were
the millions of jobs that opened
up in the rich oil states in the
1970s and first half of the 1980s.
The remittances sent home by
expatriate workers stimulated
overall prosperity in their home
countries.
Now the future does not look
bright. Saudi Arabia has accu-
mulated a large foreign debt,
which will probably grow. For-
eign contractors have been com-
plaining about lengthy delays in
payments from the Saudi gov-
ernment.
If Israeli firms ever get a
foothold in this market, they are
not likely to receive better treat-
ment. In general, stagnant
economies do not make good cus-
tomers. In fact, they might im-
pose additional barriers on
imports.
In other words, the potential for
Israeli exports is quite limited.
In stark contrast is the recent
announcement by the G7 (the
United States, Canada, UK, Ger-
many, France, Italy and Japan)
that the recession in the indus-
trialized countries was over.
Because of the recession, total
imports of these countries fell by
/-) a whopping 6.5 percent in 1993
(to $2,527 billion), increasing the
difficulties faced by those seek-
ing to export to these countries.
Despite the recession abroad,
total Israeli exports rose 13 per-
cent in 1993. Prosperity in the
industrialized countries should
give a major boost to Israel's
economy, far more than the
opening of closed or semi-closed
Arab markets.
Many believe that the removal
of the secondary and tertiary
boycotts, which presumably de-
terred foreign investment in Is-
rael, will lead to a major increase
in such investments. This, too, is
doubtful.
Businessmen looking for in-
vestment opportunities seek to
> maximize their return while
minimizing their risk. With or
without the boycott, Israel has
to compete with other countries
for these investors.
The so-called "industrializing"
countries, mainly in the Far East
and Latin America, which have
high rates of economic growth,
liberal economic policies, and of-
ten very low labor costs, are of-
ten more attractive to foreign
investors.
In some sectors, especially the
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