eventual extension of the Israel-
Egypt highway to Damascus and
Beirut, while there is provision to
extend at least two of the Israel-
Jordan highways to Saudi Arabia
and Iraq.
There also are plans to resus-
citate the old Turkish railway line,
which will provide regular ser-
vices between Tel Aviv and Cairo,
with provision for an extension to
Beirut, via Haifa.
An immediate dividend for Is-
rael, Jordan and Egypt will be
provided through the creation of
the multi-national, multi-desti-
nation resort on the Red Sea of-
fering "summer" vacations during
the northern winter.
Further along the economic
time-line, but not much further,
are plans to link Amman with the
Israeli Mediterranean port of Ash-
dod, which will dramatically re-
duce Jordan's transportation bill
and, therefore, the cost of its im-
ports.
Also under discussion is a
pipeline that will carry natural
gas from Egypt's Nile Delta to Is-
rael and to its ports for onward
shipment to Egypt's export cus-
tomers.
On the drawing boards for eco-
nomic cooperation between Israel
. and Jordan are plans for an in-
ternational tourist resort strad-
dling their common border in the
Arava, south of the Dead Sea, and
the joint use of Jordan's Akaba
airport and Israel's Ashdod har-
bor.
Eventually, the two sides hope
to close their ports at Eilat and
Akaba, freeing the area for
tourism, and replace both with a
single, joint-use port that will be
carved out of the Arava desert.
The most ambitious plan, how-
ever, involves the construction of
a massive canal running along the
common Israeli-Jordanian border
and linking the Red Sea to the
Dead Sea, providing hydro-elec-
tric power to both sides of the bor-
der.
It also would be a source of ir-
rigation to the surrounding desert
area, provide ponds for fish farm-
ing and a desalination plant to
relieve the endemic water short-
age.
In his recent book "The New
Middle East," Israeli Foreign
Minister Shimon Peres per-
mitted himself a visionary ex-
cursion when he described the
proposed canal: "The water will
flow along the Arava, the power
stations will give light and the
wastelands will bloom with life,"
he wrote. "The region will expe-
rience peace, serenity and
progress."
Israel might hold a key to in-
vestment in the Arab world from
Europe and the United States, as
well as from its own capital mar-
kets, but suspicion in the Arab
world runs deep, provoking dark
fears of Israeli economic domi-
nation if the Arab doors are
opened too quickly or too widely.
While the economic goods pro-
duced by Israel and its Arab
neighbors are complementary,
their economies are not. This im-
balance is evident, for example,
in comparisons of the economies
of Israel and Jordan, which are
the most geographically compat-
ible and politically uncomplicat-
ed of the various trading
permutations.
While Israel has a gross na-
tional product of $70 billion, Jor-
dan's is $5 billion. While Israel's
import bill last year amounted to
$16 billion, Jordan's was $3.4 bil-
lion. While 2 million tourists vis-
ited Israel last year, just 350,000
visited Jordan.
There also are plans
to construct a road
linking Akaba-Eilat-
Taba to create a
"Red Sea Riviera,"
with major tourist-
dollar implications
for Israel, Egypt and
Jordan.
According to Nadav Halevi,
professor of trade at the Hebrew
University of Jerusalem, "Trade
diversion will be much more im-
portant than trade creation.
"Trade will be much more sig-
nificant to the Jordanian econo-
my than to the Israeli economy,"
he said. "Israel can open its mar-
kets without much fear, so the de-
cision about trade arrangements
will be largely political."
Said Eliyahu Kanovsky, pro-
fessor of economics at Bar-Ilan
University, near Tel Aviv: "In
purely theoretical terms, you can
say that free trade will be good,
but there must be the political will
among the Arabs."
He believes that many of the
economic problems in the Arab
world — "corruption and social-
ism" — are internal and "these
are not going to be solved by any
peace agreement. For example,"
he noted, "peace with Egypt did
not change the situation in that
country in any significant way."
Professor Gadi Gilbar, of Tel
Aviv University's Center for Mid-
dle East Studies and an expert on
the subject of trade between Is-
rael and the Arab world, is more
optimistic and believes Israel's
exports to the Arab world even-
tually could account for 25 per-
cent of its total exports.
He notes "the biggest benefit
of peace is not economic, but
peace itself," but adds: "Let's
not minimize the fact that there
will be some very nice economic
benefits." Cl
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