RAYMOND WEIL
GENEVE
Is Caution A Plus
In New Middle East?
JAMES D BESSER WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT
t's become this year's favorite
nugget of "inside the Beltway"
wisdom: Bill Clinton's foreign
policy is weak and vacillating,
not at all what our nation needs
for an era of unprecedented
change.
In the highest echelons of Is-
rael's government, that percep-
tion is sharpened by fear that the
administration lacks the where-
withal to break the impasse in
the Syrian-Israeli talks, which is
the top item on Secretary of State
Warren Christopher's agenda as
he heads back to the region.
But there's another interpre-
tation: Perhaps Mr. Clinton's re-
strained approach to foreign
policy is exactly what we — and
Israel — need as the dimensions
of this brave new world of ours
begin to reveal themselves in
ministration's caution — what-
ever its origins — helped create
conditions that spawned both
breakthroughs. Mr. Clinton's
low-key approach to the peace
talks was a major factor in con-
vincing Prime Minister Yitzhak
Rabin to open the Oslo channel
that ultimately produced the
agreement with the PLO for lim-
ited Palestinian self-rule. By
keeping its distance, the admin-
istration may have done the best
thing possible: Forced the parties
to talk directly to each other,
without playing the game
through a third-party interlocu-
tor.
The process was much the
same in the case of the Jordani-
ans. The administration con-
vinced King Hussein that the
economic benefits he craves
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Clinton looks on as King Hussein and Yitzhak Rabin shake hands.
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LOIS HARON
8516989
Allied Member ASID
their entirety. Perhaps the lack
of blundering and the absence of
complex, unrealistic American
schemes for the region are im-
portant, yet unspectacular ele-
ments in a complex process that
has produced unexpected suc-
cesses in the past 12 months.
In the Mideast, says the con-
ventional wisdom, Mr. Clinton
and Mr. Christopher have served
mainly as choreographers of
diplomatic extravaganzas script-
ed entirely by others. That
seemed to be the case when Is-
rael and the Palestine Liberation
Organization signed their Decla-
ration of Principles on the White
House lawn a year ago, and
when Prime Minister Yitzhak
Rabin and King Hussein formal-
ly ended their countries' state of
belligerency at a White House
ceremony last week.
But it's also true that the ad-
AP/RON EDMONDS
hinged entirely on his willingness
to deal directly and sincerely with
Rabin's government, without di-
rect American intervention. The
administration helped create a
favorable climate for progress in
the talks — but then insisted that
the parties themselves do the
dirty work.
Of course, the Syrians are a dif-
ferent kettle of fish. President
Hafez Assad is a master of ob-
fuscation and delay. Many ana-
lysts predict that only forceful
American mediation can break a
stalemate with a dictator for
whom stalemate is a way of life,
not a stratagem.
But one of the underlying dy-
namics may be the same: Mr. As-
sad, who has repeatedly indicated
his preference for talking to
Washington instead of Jerusalem,
needs to be convinced that the
only route to improved U.S.-Syr-
ian relations is through progress
in his talks with Israel.
An expanding American role
of the sort favored by some Israeli
leaders is appealing because of
the seeming reconcilability of the
Syrian and Israeli positions. But
direct intervention may also give
Mr. Assad much of what he
wants without requiring a more
forthcoming approach to his talks
with Israel.
And it may neutralize the pres-
sure on Mr. Assad created by the
fact that his Arab brothers are
rushing to make peace with Is-
rael — and get in on the expect-
ed regional economic boom.
Increasingly, Syria is isolated
— and an expanded American
role could perversely diminish
that isolation.
Mr. Clinton's caution has also
helped his administration avert
Perhaps Clinton's
restrained approach
to foreign policy is
exactly what we
and Israel need.
the all-too-common American
mistake of making things worse
through well-meaning, but in-
appropriate meddling in a part
of the world that seldom con-
forms to Western diplomatic log-
ic. There is no grandiose "Clinton
peace plan" for the Middle East;
and Mr. Clinton and Mr. Christo-
pher have shunned the diplo-
matic big stick, a weapon that
invariably makes matters worse
in this region of generations'-old
grudges and hypersensitive lead-
ers.
When the Oslo talks began be-
tween Israel and the PLO last
year, Washington was unhappy
with Israel negotiating with the
longtime terrorist group. But it
did nothing to impede the talks
that eventually produced the Is-
raeli-Palestinian Declaration of
Principles.
Several months ago, the ad-
ministration wanted to focus on
Syria. At the same timne, Israel
emphasized its implementation
talks with the Palestinians.
Again, by deciding against
squeezing Israel, the adminis-
tration did not derail a Gaza-Jeri-
cho agreement that has
confounded the experts.
The Clinton White House
seemed almost baffled by the
swift developments in the Israeli-
Jordanian talks — although it
was not so baffled to forego tak-
ing full advantage of the political
gift dropped into its laps.
But for now, there's a lot to
be said for caution in a region
that has seen too much Ameri-
can blundering over the years,
too many well-meaning but
ill-conceived American plans. Ill
(