WE ORE
LweyS
BUYING
Economic Boom
Becomes Bust
Economic activity in Israel
slowed down significantly during
March and April, reversing dra-
matic gains during the first two
months of the year, the Central
Bureau of Statistics reported.
Exports, excluding diamonds,
fell 11 percent compared to a 27.5
percent rise in the first two
months of the year.
Goods imports dropped 34.3
percent in March and April,
while jumping 100.4 percent in
January and February. Con-
sumer imports decreased a more
moderate 22.9 percent, following
a 77.2 percent rise in the previ-
ous two months.
The sharp reversal in the econ-
omy's fortunes did not surprise
Bank of Israel economists.
According to Rafi Melnick, the
central bank's deputy director of
research, the economic boom ex-
perienced during the first quar-
ter was not sustainable. It was
primarily fueled by the optimism
of the peace agreement with the
Palestinians and fed by the bull-
ish stock market at the end of
last year.
Mr. Melnick sees in the latest
figures, as well as the central
bank's "S" indicator, a first sign
of an economic downturn.
He attributes the change to
three factors: the closure of the
territories, the uncertainty sur-
rounding the implementation of
the peace agreement and the
drop in stock market prices.
The ups and downs of the
peace agreement are expected to
dampen the business sector's op-
timism and its participation in
economic activity.
Although vigorous economic
activity during the first quarter
pushed the Gross Domestic Prod-
uct (GDP) up 7.5 percent accord-
ing to figures released by the
bureau, Mr. Melnick sticks to the
central bank's prediction that
GDP will grow only 5 percent this
year based on the factors that are
leading to the present economic
downturn.
`V Factor
Drops Slightly
The Bank of Israel's "S," or state
of the economy indicator, fell 0.2
percent in April as the closure of
the territories nearly shut down
construction. The preliminary fig-
ure follows an increase of 1 per-
cent in March.
During the first third of the
year, the index rose 2.6 percent,
as it did during the last third of
1993.
April's index reflected moder-
ation in private consumption. Re-
tail sales, a good consumption
indicator, dropped 1.3 percent in
the month.
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