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POLITICS page 24

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ing speculation that a deal was
being cut.
One version had it that Shas
would vote for, or at least ab-
stain on, the agreement in re-
turn for a convoluted scenario
that would culminate in a re-
duction of the charges against
Mr. Deri.
Another had the government
declaring a general amnesty —
in honor of the "peace with the
Palestinians" — with Mr. Deri
and Mr. Pinhasi being the first
beneficiaries.
In the end, however, the
prime minister did the one
thing he had never tried with
Shas before: He simply stood his
ground, forcing Shas to choose
between staying in his coalition
(with the concomitant fiscal ad-
vantages) or leaving it.
The result was that Shas ab-
stained — but by that point, it
barely mattered.
"It was proven last week that
the government can exist with-
out Shas, but Shas cannot exist
without the government,"
Ha'aretz columnist Ran Kislev
observed this week. "Of course,
had its six Knesset members
not abstained, the parliamen-
tary picture on the confirmation
of the PLO agreements would
have appeared a bit less ele-
gant. But in terms of substance,
it wouldn't have changed at all.
A majority is a majority."
In retrospect, that vote was
a political and psychological Ru-
bicon for both Shas and Yitzhak
Rabin.
Having established the prece-
dent of an Israeli, rather than
a Jewish majority being the ac-
cepted political norm within Is-
raeli democracy, there's no
going back to the old rules and
prejudices.
True, there was nerve-wrack-
ing wheeling and dealing be-
tween Shas and the opposition
right up to the last minute. But
when the chips were down, Mr.
Rabin proved to be better at the
game of "chicken" that Shas has
been orchestrating for months.
And having blinked first,
Shas emerged from the affair
considerably weakened.
But the worst setback was
suffered by the Likud, and
specifically by Benjamin (Bibi)
Netanyahu. The Likud really
lost its footing over the Israel-
PLO agreement. Badly overre-
acting, Mr. Netanyahu
portrayed it as an unprece-
dented national disaster, but
failed to rally his party behind
him.
Nowhere was this manifest-
ed more clearly than at the two
large demonstrations"against
the agreement. The list of
speakers was topped by per-
sonalities from the Likud, but
the demonstrators themselves
were almost exclusively from
the religious right. Wholly ab-

sent from these rallies were the
Likud's native constituencies:
lower-middle-class Ashkenazi
voters from the towns and sub-
urbs of the Israeli heartland
and the upwardly mobile
Sephardic voters of Yavne,
Kiryat Gat and the country's
other development towns.
Big business, another bastion
of Likud support, stood firmly
behind any move that would
bring Israel closer to stability
and peace. Fifteen T ,ikud may-
ors (who are currently in the
throes of an election campaign)
likewise came down on the side
of the government. And three
Likud Knesset members — in-
cluding former Jewish Agency
treasurer Meir Shitrit and Tel
Aviv mayoral candidate Ronni
Millo — defied Mr. Netanyahu's
order to bow to party discipline
and abstained in the vote. If the
enraged settlers who battled
with the police on the streets of
Jerusalem looked like a tribe
that had lost its chief, Bibi —
bereft of the Likud's usual de-
mographic backdrop — bore all
the marks of a chief that had
lost his tribe.
In the aftermath of the Knes-
set vote, Mr. Netanyahu was

The worst setback
was suffered by the
Likud and
specifically
Netanyahu.

subject to a shower of bitter crit-
icism for his poor handling of
the affair. Ariel Sharon, who
scored him for lacking an "al-
ternative program," has called
for the institution of a "collec-
tive leadership" compromised
of "experienced people."
Michael Eytan (who, ironi-
cally, has the reputation of be-
ing one of the more radical
members of the party) has been
pressing for the Likud to join
Labor in a National Unity Gov-
ernment. There's even been talk
in the Likud Central Commit-
tee of holding another prima-
ry for the purpose of replacing
Mr. Netanyahu.
Whether matters will get
that far is doubtful right now.
Nevertheless, it was evident
that in his first major test, Bibi
Netanyahu misread the mood,
or his role, or perhaps the tide
of events — and faltered.
Meanwhile, some serious
soul searching is in order for the
Likud, as well as for Shas. Both
parties miscalculated their po-
sitions and strength. Both
graced a signal national event
with little more than knee-jerk
reactions, and both have been
bruised by their own clumsi-
ness. [11