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The Mideast Changed
Before And After

RAYMOND TARTER SPECIAL TO THE JEWISH NEWS

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Raymond Tenter

A

s the Jewish holidays
begin, let's first consid-
er the good news: The
Arab-Israeli conflict as
a series of wars is over. Why?
Well, Israel won all the wars,
was on the winning side of the
global Cold War and the hot
war in the Gulf, and has the
first-strike capacity to destroy
the Arab confrontation states'
air forces on the ground if
there is another war.
The peace agreement and
mutual recognition accord
between Israel and the PLO
display Jerusalem as victor,
not victim. The agreements
portray an Israel that virtual-
ly dictated the terms of a set-
tlement as a weak and broke
PLO looked for peace.
But Jewish opponents of
the peace process are correct
when they say that Israel
still lives in a tough neighbor-
hood with lots of bullies
Yet the opponents fail to
take into account the differ-
ent circumstances of the
region that make Israel's mil-
itary capability still impor-
tant to deter attacks from
Arab states, but less relevant
in protecting individual Jews
from assaults by
Palestinians.
When the main threat was
to the "basic security" of the
Jewish state from hostile
neighbors like Egypt, a first-
strike capability was an effec-
tive deterrent. Now, however,
a danger is to the "current
security" of Jews at bus stops,
homes and places of business.
Local Palestinians wishing
to provoke an overreaction by
Jerusalem seek to derail the
peace train with such
attacks. If Israeli reprisals
are in proportion to the
provocation, then the peace
process can move along its
track on time.

.

So the bad news? The con-
flict continues as a communal
struggle between Palestinian
Arabs and Israeli Jews as
well as between religious
Palestinian radicals and their
secular enemies in the PLO.
Jerusalem must remain on
guard against the nuclear,
chemical and biological
weapons capability of the likes
of Iran, Iraq and Libya. But
the accords between Israel
and the PLO isolates these
states and makes it less likely
that they can harm Israel.
Yes, Iran supplies Syria
with missiles capable of hit-
ting Eilat. But Jerusalem's
answer to the Syrian threat
is threefold: Continue to
deter Damascus with a threat
to reply in kind, take main-
stream Palestinians out of
the Iranian-backed funda-
mentalist camp with the
mutual-recognition and self-
rule proposals, and negotiate
a grade of full peace for with-
drawal to secure borders on
the Golan Heights.
Because Mr. Arafat is a
David Ben-Gurion to the
Palestinians, Mr. Arafat is
the candidate most able to
block the rise of Iranian-sup-
ported Islamic fundamental-
ists who oppose peace with
Israel. He can reduce
Palestinian attacks on
Jewish settlers in Hebron
and prevent knifings of
Jewish travelers at bus stops
in Petach Tikva and Kiryat
Shemona.
But because of over 5,000
years of Jewish history that
include both Massada and
the. Holocaust, pessimists
have a strong argument.
With this history, Jews sim-
ply cannot afford the luxury
of thinking as victors and
lowering their guard based
upon misplaced trust in
Palestinian promises. But the
accords are so much in the
interest of mainstream
Palestinians they will seek to
make them work.
Meanwhile, Israel can main-
tain its deterrent strength, con-
tinue to negotiate with those
willing both to recognize its
right to exist and renounce ter-
ror, and stay within the
American alliance Cji
Raymond Tenter is a professor
of political science at the
University of Michigan and a
1981-82 member of the senior
staff of the National Security
Council.

A DAY OF PEACE

Israelis Here Relieved,
But Still Skeptical

KIMBERLY LIFTON STAFF WRITER

Jewish Community Council staff member Miriam (merman will have to tell four-
month-old Susan about the history she watched last Monday.

or years, Avi Zechory, an
Israeli who is now a
Southfield veterinarian,
told his friends that
peace was much more
valuable than a little
strip of land. And for years,
he said, few listened.
"I am part of Peace Now,"
he said. "And I always
believed in dialogue. Nothing
is as important as peace and
no bloodshed."
On Monday, Dr. Zechory
blocked out two hours from of
his work schedule to watch
Israeli and Palestinian lead-
ers sign the historic agree-
ment that will serve as the
framework to end a bitter
conflict.
"It was emotional," Dr.
Zechory said. "I am not elat-
ed, and I am not blue. We can
not dwell on our past. Let's
get on with it."
"It is a very small step in a
very long process," said Ron
Stay, an Israeli who has been
living in the Detroit area for
seven years."This creates a
whole new process in the
Middle East that might bring
unbelievable things to the
nation, but it might bring
havoc."
Across
metropolitan
Detroit, eyes and ears were

F

glued to television sets and
radio broadcasts for the sign-
ing ceremony at the White
House. The mood among
Israelis was mixed with ela-
tion and skepticism. The
question still lingering: What
about Jerusalem?
"We can't give away all
land for peace," Dr. Zechory
said. "Let's share Jerusalem.
In a few years, both sides will
come back to the table with
strong statements about why
they each should control
Jerusalem.
"I see a future of joint
rule," Dr. Zechory said.
Mr. Stay, 31, served in the
Israeli military during the
Lebanon War in 1982.
Friends were wounded.
Several died.
"I've seen too many of my
friends go down," Mr. Stay
said. "Anytime we can talk
instead of fight, I am for it."
Mr. Stay took Monday off
work. He watched the live
reports on television. He lis-
tened to the pundits try to
make sense out of it all.
"It took 14 years from the
first meetings at Camp David
to get here," Mr. Stay said.
"And it will probably take
another 14 years for the next
step to occur. That will be a

Palestinian state."
Doron Peleg, 32, has mixed
feelings about Monday's
agreement. He served in the
Israeli army during the
Lebanon war. He knew peo-
ple who died. But he always
was vocal in his opposition to
land for peace.
Slowly, Mr. Peleg is
changing his mind.
"Something had to be
done," Mr. Peleg said. "I don't
really believe this is a peace
agreement. Maybe it will
make things a little more
quiet. I guess I've changed. If
people don't die, this is good."
For University of Michigan
doctoral candidate Avi
Ruben, 25, taking a few
hours away from his lab
studies to witness the peace
signing was worth his time.
His family moved to the
United States from Israel
when he was 9 years old. He
remembers growing up with
an overwhelming feeling that
Israel should not give back
any land.
"In light of these most
recent developments, which
are something we couldn't
ever have imagined, I have
been able to rethink all of
these views," Mr. Ruben said.
"I cautiously think it may be
possible. I need some proof,
but I am optimistic."
Jack Edelstein moved to
Ann Arbor in 1980 to pursue
doctoral studies at U-M in
strategic planning. His par-
ents live near Kfar Saba, a
village on the West Bank.
He lives part time in Ann
Arbor, where he works at the
U-M business school, and
part time in Israel. He is try-
ing to help Israeli companies
prosper in the international
business market.
"This is a positive step,"
Mr. Edelstein said. "There
are many different uncertain-
ties ahead, but that is a risk
Israel has to take. And the
risk is not that great because
Israel has a very strong
army.
"The sooner we stop
becoming occupiers of the ter-
ritories, the better off we
are,"Mr. Edelstein said. "If
we do establish a relationship
with the Palestinians, this
provides tremendous oppor-
tunity for business in the
Arab world and the whole
region will flourish." ❑