Christopher In Mideast

s Secretary of State
Warren Christopher
prepares to embark
on his first swing sw-
ing through the Middle East
this coming week, he must
be perplexed by the con-
tradictory and competing
voices emanating from the
Arab media.
The obsessive focus of
Arab attention continues to
be the Israeli decision to
allow only one-quarter of the
remaining 396 exiled Hamas
activists to return immedi-
ately from their chilly
hillside in south Lebanon.
That decision is widely
perceived by Arab commen-
tators to have been cooked
up between Israel and Wash-
ington in order to sweep the
issue off the U.N. Security
Council agenda and get the
Jewish state off the hook of
sanctions.
But beyond the ritual Arab
condemnations and threats
to boycott direct peace talks
until all the deportees are
allowed to return, the most
instructive aspect of the af-
fair is the deep suspicion
that characterizes relations
between the Arab parties
involved in bi-lateral
negotiations.
The Palestinians blame
the Syrians for complicity in
the deal. The Jordanians
blame the Egyptians. The
Egyptians blame the United
States. In fact, all four of the
Arab parties, each for its
own reason, have rejoiced in
Israel's bungled deporta-
tions and in its subsequent
diplomatic entanglement.
But while they have ex-
ploited the deportation issue
for public relations gains,
they are unlikely to
translate their fire-and-
brimstone into an actual
boycott of the talks, thereby
jeopardizing their relations
with the new Clinton ad-
ministration.
The danger inherent in
such defiance was
underlined by President Bill
Clinton, who issued a state-
ment last week in which he
spoke of the great oppor-
tunities for Middle East
peace, but also noted the
potential for failure.
More important, he offered
the parties a pair of tantaliz-
ing — and catalyzing —
carrots and sticks: "Those
who who oppose the process,
who seek to subvert it

A

The new U.S.
Secretary of State
heads for Israel and
the Arab states
seeking to get the
peace talks
restarted.

DOUGLAS DAVIS

FOREIGN CORRESPONDENT

through violence and in-
timidation, will find no
tolerance here for their mes-
sage," he warned. "Those
who are willing to make
peace will find in me and my
administration a full part-
ner."
The very fact that Mr.
Christopher has been temp-
ted to poke a toe into the
Middle East snakepit is
regarded as a signal that
peace talks will soon be back
on track. He is unlikely to
risk failure on his first mis-
sion abroad and the tough
Clinton threat, coupled with
the perceived need of all par-
ties to avoid antagonizing
the new administration, has
no doubt served as further
encouragement.
Mr. Christopher already
has consulted by phone with
all the major players and
Israeli sources believe that,
continuing Arab rhetoric
notwithstanding, he already
may have pencilled in dates
for a resumption of the
bilateral talks — if not in
February then at least in
mid-April, following the
Muslim fast of Ramadan and
the Jewish festival of
Passover.
Confirmation of the gap
between Arab rhetoric over
the deportees and reality
concerning the peace talks
was provided by Israeli For-
eign Shimon Peres, who told

Despite the
deportations,
resumption of the
talks is likely.

Israel Radio that Washing-
ton had consulted with both
Egypt and Syria,
presumably winning their
acquiescence in the
U.S.-brokered Israeli corn-
promise over the deporta-
tions.
"The Arabs can push," he
said, "but they are also be-
ing pushed. They are not the
only ones setting the tone.
To the best of our knowl-
edge, they also want to
resume the negotiations."
Israeli sources note that
all the Arab parties involved
in direct talks with Israel —
Jordan and the Palestinians,
Syria and Lebanon — are
beset by threats from

Warren Christopher carries the Clinton threat to the Mideast.

Islamic radicals, as is Egypt,
which is playing a crucial
mediating role.
In Jordan, Iranian-backed
Islamic fundamentalists
won one-third of the seats in
last year's elections and
King Hussein is now re-
ported to be considering a
two-year postponement of
the second round of elections
this year to give the secular
parties time to catch up with
their fundamentalist rivals.
The Palestinian nation-
alists are facing a full-
frontal challenge for
supremacy from the Hamas
radicals in the West Bank
and Gaza Strip, who have
warned the Palestinian
negotiators to boycott the
talks even if all the
deportees are returned.
In a statement timed to
coincide with the arrival in
Washington last weekend of
Palestinian spokesperson
Hanan Ashrawi, Hamas
equated peace with sur-
render. "We call on the PLO
to announce an immediate
and complete withdrawal
from the peace talks," a
Hamas statement announc-
ed.
In Lebanon, the funda-
mentalist Hezbollah move-

ment, which has developed
close links with llamas (en-
gineered by Teheran and co-
ordinated by Iranian Revo-
lutionary Guards based close
to the Syrian border in Leb-
anon's Bekaa Valley), has
emerged as the most power-
ful force in the steaming
cauldron of Lebanese poli-
tics. It is the only militia
that has not been disarmed
by the Syrian-backed
Lebanese Army and it is
able to carry out raids
against Israeli targets seem-
ingly at will.
In Syria, President Hafez
Assad gave a graphic dem-
onstration of his resolve to
fight Islamic threats when
he sent his army into the an-
cient town of llama in 1982
to put down a demonstration
by the extremist Muslim
Brotherhood. The town was
sealed off and 20,000
Muslim Brotherhood
followers were killed.
Why, then, are the Arab
parties playing hard-ball
ovIr the Hama' , deportees?
The answer is twofold: They
• live seized on the issue to
test the resolve of the new
ittlmini.stration. in Washing-
tot and, n i the case of Syria
and the Palestinians, to seek