Yitzhak Rabin may not buy into the conventional wisdom that Bill
Clinton is the candidate that's best for Israel.

Mr. Rabin first learned about American policy mak-
ing as ambassador to the United States and as prime
minister, during a Republican administration — that
of Richard Nixon, Mr. Rosenberg noted. Mr. Rabin
liked the political atmosphere he found in Washing-
ton. "He longs for the days of Kissinger, and even of
Nixon, when you had hard-headed thinking, real-
politik , in the White House," Mr. Rosenberg said.
By contrast, he added, Mr. Rabin found the Democ-
ratic replacement, Jimmy Carter, a moralistic nui-
sance, always complaining about civil rights violations
against the Palestinians.

T

he sentiment for Mr. Clinton in the Rabin
administration stems from economic con-
cerns, Mr. Rosenberg continued. The ad-
ministration thinks Mr. Clinton would be
better for the American economy, he said,
"and they know that what's good for the American
economy is good for Israel." But he concurred that this
attitude is offset by the administration's worry that
the peace process could stall under Mr. Clinton.
Hebrew University Professor Shlomo Avineri, one
of Israel's sharpest political scientists and director-
general of the Foreign Ministry in Rabin's 1974-77
administration, thinks that in Mr. Rabin's heart of
hearts, he doesn't much care who wins the election on
Nov. 3. "There is a realization (on Mr. Rabin's part)
-_, that you have to scratch very deeply to find a differ-
ence between Bush and Clinton with regard to policy
toward Israel."

American Jewish supporters
of Mr. Clinton like to point to the
Arkansas governor's Jewish
brain trust, his choice of Al Gore
as running mate, and his story
about the dying clergyman who
told him never to abandon Is-
rael, as proof of the Democrat's
soul-deep commitment to the
Jewish state. On Mr. Bush's
debit side, they cite the presi-
dent's cold relations with Mr.
Shamir, his remark about "the
thousand lobbyists on the Hill"
during the loan guarantee
squabble, and the four-letter
word Mr. Baker might have
used in reference to the Jews.
Indeed, most Israelis favor a
Clinton presidency, especially
the 100,000 to 120,000 Ameri-
can Jews living in the Jewish
state, and, not surprisingly, the
Palestinian population favors
Mr. Bush.
But all these points are mere-
ly "personal" or "anecdotal," Mr.
Avineri said.
"American Jews think in
terms of personalities; Rabin
thinks solely in terms of strat-
egy," he stressed.
As for the argument that Mr.
Clinton, with his massive Jew-
ish support, would be political-
ly indebted to Israel, while Mr.
Bush, with meager Jewish back-
ing, would owe Israel nothing,
Mr. Avineri said this line prob-
ably wouldn't impress Mr. Ra-
bin.
"There is a basic foreign pol-
icy consensus today between the
Republicans and the Democ-
rats," he said. And the prime
minister knows, he added, that
"at the end of the day, American
policy toward Israel is not de-
termined by political considera-
tions (of the Jewish vote), but by
strategic ones, even though
American Jews tend to think
otherwise."

HOW JEWS VOTED
IN THE PAST

If George Bush pulls the unexpected and gets a majority of Jewish votes
on Nov. 3, it will be only the second time in 19 presidential races since 1916
that Jews sided with the GOP rather than with the Democratic Party. Not
only did the Republican, Warren Harding, get 43 percent of Jews' votes,

but Socialist Eugene Debs got more than Democrat James M. Cox.
The most Jewish votes for a Democratic winner — 90 percent — went to
Franklin Roosevelt in 1940 and 1944; the least — 55 percent — went to Woodrow
Wilson in 1916.

1916
Vote
(Rep.) Hughes
(Dem.) Wilson

1920
(Rep.) Harding
(Dem.) Cox
(Soc.) Debs

1924
(Rep.) Coolidge
(Dem.) Davis
(Progressive)
LaFolette

1928
(Rep.) Hoover
(Dem.) Roosevelt

45
55

43
19
38

27
51

22

28
72

1932
(Rep.) Hoover
(Dem.) Roosevelt

18
82

1936
(Rep.) Landon
(Dem.) Roosevelt

15
85

1940
(Rep.) Wilkie
(Dem.) Roosevelt

10
90

1944
(Rep.) Dewey
(Dem.) Roosevelt

10
90

1948
(Rep.) Dewey
(Dem.) Truman
(Progressive)
Wallace

1952
(Rep.)
Eisenhower

% of Jewish

% of Jewish Vote

10
75

(Dem.) Stevenson

64

1956
(Rep.)
Eisenhower
(Dem.) Stevenson

40
60

1960
(Rep.) Nixon
(Dem.) Kennedy

18
82

1964
(Rep.) Goldwater
(Dem.) Johnson

10
90

1968
(Rep.) Nixon
(Dem.) Humphrey
(Ind.) Wallace

17
81
2

1972
(Rep.) Nixon
(Dem.)
McGovern

35

65

1976
(Rep.) Ford
(Dem.) Carter
(Ind.) McCarthy

27
71
2

1980
(Rep.) Reagan
(Dem.) Carter
(Ind.) Anderson

39
45
14

1984
(Rep.) Reagan
(Dem.) Mondale

31
69

15

36

Source: Reprinted from The Near East Report

1988
(Rep.) Bush
(Dem.) Dukakis

0.3

co
c‘i

27
73

CC

w

C_D

35

