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Washington Correspondent

T

he recent primary
defeat of Rep. Stephen
Solarz, D-N.Y., means
there will be further radical
changes in the make-up of
the House Foreign Affairs
Committee in the next Con-
gress.
The committee has already
lost several pro-Israel
stalwarts, and its chairman,
Rep. Dante Fascell, D-Fla.,
has announced he will retire
from Congress. The defeat of
Rep. Solarz, who consistent-
ly supported Israel on the
committee, will plunge the
committee into further dis-
array and turn it into a less
predictable body on such
issues as the Middle East.
Other pro-Israel members
who have been defeated in
primaries are Rep. Mel
Levine, D-Calif., Rep. Ed-
ward Feighan, D-Ohio, Rep.
Wayne Owens, D-Utah, and
Rep. John Miller, R-Wash.
Compounding these losses
was the death of Rep. Ted
Weiss the day before the
New York primary.
Plus, five of the corn-
mittee's 10 ranking mem-
bers, including Rep. Howard
Wolpe, D-Mich., will retire
at the end of this session.
Mr. Fascell's likeliest
replacement as committee
chairman is Rep. Lee
Hamilton, D-Ind. The con-
gressman heads the com-
mittee's Europe and the

Rep. Stephen Solarz:
Defeat muddies Foreign Affairs.

Middle East subcommittee
and is regarded as one of the
smartest, most thoughtful
legislators on the Hill. But
he has sometimes taken
tough stands on Israel, and
his independence worries
some pro-Israel activists.
Mr. Hamilton is reportedly
on the short list for Secre-
tary of State if Arkansas
Gov. Bill Clinton gets to the
White House.
If Mr. Hamilton goes, next
in line for the committee's
chairmanship sis Rep. Sam
Gejdenson, D-Conn., a mem-
ber of the House Jewish con-
tingent.
But Mr. Gejdenson is fac-
ing a tough race for reelec-
tion in November. His defeat
could result in a free-for-all
in the battle for the chair-
manship.

(

c= „

The Winner,
Please .. .

It's official: One of the
nation's leading presidential
prognosticators has an-
nounced his pick for
November.
The winner, says political
historian Allan J. Lichtman,
is Arkansas Gov. Bill Clin-
ton. And according to Mr.
Lichtman, Jews will play an
important part in that vic-
tory — even without a seri-
ous effort by Gov. Clinton to
court them.
Lichtman's system for
predicting elections has been
eerily accurate in recent
years. It is based on 13
"keys" to the presidency.
Each key is a simple
"Yes/no" question on issues
like incumbency, the
presence of a viable third
party and crises in foreign
affairs.

Recent bad economic news,
said Mr. Lichtman, tilted the
balance in favor of Mr. Clin-
ton.
Where does the Jewish
community fit into these pro-
jections?
The professor estimated
that up to 80 percent of Jews
will vote for the Democratic
ticket.
Since more Jews than that
are unlikely to vote for Mr.
Clinton no matter how much
his party invests in a
"Jewish strategy," Professor
Lichtman said the governor
must devote only enough
resources on the Jewish
community to avoid any im-
pression that he is slighting
Jews — and to support voter
registration efforts now
underway by a number of
Jewish groups.

CSI