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August 07, 1992 - Image 34

Resource type:
Text
Publication:
The Detroit Jewish News, 1992-08-07

Disclaimer: Computer generated plain text may have errors. Read more about this.

DM,MVAMMW30M3MDMMANDMIWOMMM3103

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NEWS

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INA FRIEDMAN

Israel Correspondent

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34

R

ORATION

FRIDAY, AUGUST 7, 1992

189 MERRILL STREET
BIRMINGHAM, MI 48009
(313) 644-1124 FAX (313) 644-3739

e thought it was a
Scud attack," ex-
plained shaken
residents of Nof Yam after
the huge explosion at a
munitions plant north of Tel
Aviv. And well they might
have, not only because the
blast damage was reminis-
cent of the havoc caused by
Iraq's missiles, but because
of the sense of deja vu that
passed through Israel in a
week when Saddam stood
defiant and President Bush
talked tough.
The jab of anxiety that hit
the collective Israeli gut had
citizens wondering whether
they should be airing out
their gas masks and beating
the rush for plastic sheeting
and masking tape, especially -
as the news coming out of
Iraq over the past months
has not been encouraging.
Despite the work of the
U.N. inspection teams, it is
estimated that the Iraqis
still have about 10 mobile
missile launchers and up to
200 Scuds in their arsenal.
They are now believed to
have reported only a quarter
of the chemical weapons in
their stock, and the inspec-
tion teams uncovered forms
of nerve gas that Baghdad
had never owned up to.
After the U.N.'s setback at
the Agriculture Ministry
last week, the possibility of
really ridding Iraq of
weapons of mass destruction
can hardly be described as
encouraging. And even if the
inspectors could report that
they had found and
destroyed all the weapons
and facilities they're looking
for, there's no assurance
that once U.N. pressure let
up, Saddam would not
secretly rebuild his weapons
program.
On Sunday, moreover,
Israelis woke up to the news
that the danger extends well
beyond Iraq. Iran, according
to a special report just
released by the Simon
Wiesenthal Center in Los
Angeles, now has 10
facilities for developing
nuclear weapons and will
begin manufacturing mis-
siles (with Chinese and Nor-
th Korean technology) that
can reach Israel.
Syria, the report adds, has
between 50 and 100
chemical war heads,
thousands of chemical
bombs, and is building two

missile-assembly plants to
round out its arsenal of
Scud-Cs purchased from
North Korea. And Libya,
too, is negotiating with Nor-
th Korea for missiles that
can hit targets in Israel (as
well as France and Italy, to
whatever degree that's a
consolation).
Yet despite, or perhaps be-
cause of all these dishearten- •
ing developments, there is a
growing interest in Israel in
a subject that has long been
pooh-poohed as no more than
a pipe dream: arms control.
In fact, it was an intriguing
coincidence that just as ten-
sion was rising to a fever pit-
ch by the Agriculture Min-
istry in Baghdad, Dennis
Ross, director of policy plan-
ning at the State Depart-
ment and a top aide to Secre-
tary of State James Baker,
lectured on that very subject
at Tel Aviv University.
Mr. Ross spoke to the skep-
ticism of his audience in ad-

Mr. Ross's
prescription for
success is a
combination of
creativity,
determination and
patience.

mitting that arms control in
the Middle East sounds like
a contradiction in terms. Yet
with the advent of peace
talks, one major obstacle —
the solution of key political
issues — is at least being ad-
dressed now.
Not that the achievement
of political accommodations
automatically implies new
thinking on the matter of
armament. That often re-
quires a revolution in how
leaders perceive the best in-
terests of their countries' na-
tional security. The tradi-
tional mode of deterrence is
based on the psychology of a
poker game, using secrecy
and bluff to get one's
enemies to believe the worst.
Arms control, however, is
predicated on the opposite
notion that openness be-
tween nations — "trans-
parency," in Mr. Ross's words
— can contribute more to
security than secrecy does,
just as an atmosphere of
predictability will enhance,
rather than damage, a na-
tion's security by reducing
suspicion and the risk of
miscalculation.
Mr. Ross also cited other

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