0
•
•
\ •
On the anniversary of the 1981 attack on Iraq's
nuclear reactor, the Likud used its television time (TV
campaigning is regulated here, with each party get-
ting a share proportional to its representation in the
outgoing Knesset) to remind the public that Labor op-
posed the raid. Menachem Begin's son Benny, now
one of the Likud's leading figures, told voters that La-
bor did not understand the realities of the Middle
East, and reminded them that, had it not been for his
father's decision, the Scuds that fell on Israeli cities
during the Gulf War might well have been armed with
nuclear warheads. Following the telecast, Likud strate-
gists proclaimed it their most effective thrust thus far.
The Likud is not the only party to concentrate on
the past. On Jerusalem Day, which commemorated
the 25th anniversary of the city's liberation, Mr. Ra-
bin reminded voters of his role in the Six Day War
by visiting the city accompanied by a gaggle of pho-
tographers.
Absent from the Likud's campaign, as from Labor's,
has been any effort to address the current problems
that Israel faces. One example: During much of the
campaign the Gaza Strip has been completely or par-
tially closed off, following the murder of an Israeli girl
in the Tel Aviv suburb of Bat Yam by a Palestinian
day worker.
Yet neither major party has addressed the issue
of Gaza's future. Political analysts have been reduced
to reading tea leaves, noting that in a televised state-
ment about territorial integrity, Benny Begin men-
tioned the Golan Heights and West Bank, but omitted
Gaza.
The Likud, aware that polls show its leaders are out
of favor with the public, have displayed them spar-
ingly. Public rallies have been relatively few, although
•
the pace is expected to pick up in the campaign's last
days. The party's main television spokesman thus far
has been Benny Begin. Party chiefs Ariel Sharon,
David Levy and Defense Minister Moshe Arens have
rarely appeared on television spots, and even Yitzhak
Shamir's air time has been limited. This, in turn, has
led Labor to charge that the Likud is "hiding" its lead-
er.
One of the few innovations of Campaign '92 has been
the heavy concentration on the Russian vote. The ma-
jor parties are using Russian-language sub-titles on
the television spots, as well as devoting a portion of
their airtime to Russian spokesmen. Predictably, the
Likud has taken an upbeat approach to aliyah, point-
ing to the fact that 400,000 new immigrants have ar-
rived during its tenure, and to their relatively good
housing situation. Labor, on the other hand, has con-
centrated on the lack of jobs for newcomers, although
it has dealt with the issue largely in generalities.
Thus far the Russian vote, which could be as much
as seven percent of the total, is a wild card, although
most observers believe that Labor will benefit more
than the Likud. An independent Russian list, Da, is
running too, but it has been hurt by the refusal by So-
viet dissident Natan Sharansky, head of the Zionist
Forum, to endorse the party or help it raise funds.
One result of the Russian vote will almost certain-
ly be a decline in the number of Knesset seats won by
the religious parties. In the outgoing Knesset, Ortho-
dox factions had 18 members; this time, that number
will probably drop by two or three. The National Re-
ligious Party, which polls show winning five seats, has
already pledged to join a Likud-led government, but
the ultra-Orthodox groups are still on the fence.
Both the Torah Judaism bloc (led by Agudat Yis-
rael and Rabbi Eliazer Shach of Bnai Brak) and Shas,
(a Sephardic faction whose spiritual leader is Rabbi
Ovadia Yosef) will almost certainly keep their op-
tions open until after the election in the hope of trad-
ing their votes for influence in the next government. c;
If current trends hold, whichever major party strikes )
a deal with the ultra-Orthodox will be able to form a
narrow coalition. But the Likud, which earlier this -I
year failed to hold a similar government together, has
little appetite for a reprise. Labor, on the other hand,
would find it difficult to construct a coalition that in
cluded both the religious parties and the militantly
secular Meretz bloc.
Because of these difficulties, and barring some sort
of last minute sea change in voter sentiment, the smart -
money is on another national unity government led
jointly by Labor and the Likud. That was the result of
the 1984 and 1988 elections too, although this time=
Yitzhak Rabin, and not Yitzhak Shamir, would like-
ly get the top spot.
Still, in a country disgusted by the endless political -
maneuvering of the parties and dismayed by the lack
of fresh faces and new ideas, few are excited about the
prospect of yet another coalition born of stalemate. ❑
Mr. Chafets, a Michigan native, was head of the Is-
rael government press office under Menachem Begin
and is now a journalist and author in Israel. This
article was made possible by a grant from The Fund
For Journalism on Jewish Life, a project of the CRB -
Foundation of Montreal, and the Jewish Telegraph-
ic Agency. Any views expressed are solely those of the
author.
Shamir: Best Chance To Achieve Peace
White House Correspondent
Trude Feldman interviewed
Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir,
76, who has been in the post
longer than any other person in
Israel's history:
Jewish News: What do you
consider to be your most signif-
icant accomplishments as prime
minister?
Prime Minister Shamir-
The most important accom-
plishments that give us the
greatest satisfaction are the re-
newal of the momentum of mass
immigration which has brought
more than 400,000 immigrants
into the country in the last 27
months. The airlift of almost
15,000 Ethiopian Jews within 36
hours last May was one of the
most inspiring and wonderful
achievements.
Second, the beginning of the
peace process between us and
our neighbors, which is based on
the proposals we presented in
May 1989, offers new hope for an
end to the state of war imposed
on us by the Arab states.
Third, the renewal or estab-
24 FRIDAY, JUNE 19, 1992
lishment for the first
time of diplomatic re-
lations with Israel by
countries like China,
India, the former So-
viet Union, Nigeria,
and others.
JN: How has the-
premiership changed
you as a leader and as
a human being?
Mr. Shamir: The
position has not
changed me. It has
deepened my appre-
ciation of the immense
potential of the re- Shamir: confident in the job he's doing.
naissance of the Jew-
ish people gathered in its ancient of Israel under Likud achieved
the first, and thus far only, peace
homeland.
JN: If you could relive your agreement with an Arab state.
premiership, what would you do Contrary to projections at the
time, a so-called "right wing" gov-
differently?
Mr. Shamir: I would do ernment proved it had the ca-
everything the same as it was pacity and popular support to
conclude a peace agreement with
done.
JN: Why do you think your Israel's Arab neighbors. I believe
party, Likud, offers Israeli vot- the people of Israel have realized
ers the best chance for peace and that a Likud government has a
better chance of achieving the
security?
best
terms in the peace negoti-
Mr. Shamir. The government
ations.
JN: Why would you
continue Israel's set-
tlement policy in the
face of world reaction
that such settlements
are an obstacle to
peace?
Mr. Shamir: We
do not agree that the
settlements in Judea,
Samaria and the
Gaza District are an
obstacle to peace.
They never were - not
at the time of our ne-
gotiations for the
peace treaty with
Egypt, nor now.
Arab terrorism and belliger-
ence are the obstacle to peace. It
is inconceivable that Jews be de-
nied the right to live in any part
of this land. Such a denial will be
a formidable obstacle to peace be-
cause it will be interpreted by
the Arabs as a sign that the ar-
eas in question are being held
free of Jewish presence in order
to establish on them an Arab
state led by the PLO.
JN: Have Arab attitudes
changed vis-a-vis Israel?
Mr. Shamir. My main regret
is that the Arab refusal to accept
Israel as a legitimate entity in
the Mideast has delayed the
peace process so long. The PLO
Charter has never been revoked,
and they cannot be regarded as
a factor for peace. The PLO and
peace are contradictory terms.
JN: How would you sum up
the current situation in the
Mideast?
Mr. Shamir. Better than it
has been in a long time. The pre-
sent peace process raises the
prospects of peace and progress.
JN: What is your personal
vision for the Mideast?
Mr. Shamir. I would like to
see a Middle East where we will
truly be able to turn "our swords
into plowshares," and we shall
be living in conditions of peace
and cooperation in all fields. We
have many common problems to
contend with such as ecology,
water and could all benefit from
scientific and economic coopera-
tion. I hope that we shall see this
happening before long.