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FINE JEWELERS GEM/DIAMOND SPECIALIST I I I I IN 1111 I • ••■ •• • 11•■ • • ••• =I I I I I I I Every presidential election cycle is accompanied by grandiose forecasts that the Jewish vote will somehow be pivotal to the outcome. But in 1992, those predic- tions could prove accurate, thanks to the surprising candidacy of Texas billionaire Ross Perot. With the possibility of a tight three-way race in November, Jewish get-out- the-vote efforts, already be- ing planned by a number of Jewish groups, could have a dramatic impact on the elec- tion. "If Perot wins Texas and California, the only way (President George) Bush can win is if he wins New York, Pennsylvania and several other big states," said polit- ical historian Allan J. Lichtman, an expert in polit- ical prognostication. "And the Jewish vote could turn those states." The Republican party has already recognized this change in the presidential calculus. "(Secretary of State James) Baker has met with the Jewish leadership more in the past three months than he did in the previous three years," said a leading pro-Israel activist this week. "Clearly, the importance of the Jewish community — at least in a political sense — has increased of late." Arkansas Gov. Bill Clin- ton's Jewish problem is compounded by the fact that in a three-way race, strategy demands that he shift to the left —leaving Mr. Perot and President Bush to split up the conservative vote. Gov. Clinton's strategists are fac- ed with the uncomfortable reality that the things the candidate must do in a three- way race will in all likelihood damage efforts to attract large numbers of Jewish votes. The Clinton campaign re- cently took steps to bolster its effort among Jewish voters. Sarah Ehrman, a longtime Washington ac- tivist with a varied Jewish resume, will be moving to Little Rock in the next few weeks to beef up the cam- paign's grass-roots effort — especially in the Jewish community. Ms. Ehrman was a founder of the successful grass-roots network of the American- Israel Public Affairs Com- mittee (AIPAC). At the same time, she is on the board of Americans for Peace Now. Ms. Ehrman is a longtime friend of Gov. Clinton's wife, Hilary, whose presence in the campaign continues to grow. Ms. Ehrman will comple- ment Karen Adler, who re- cently took over the Jewish portfolio after a struggle over the shape of the can- didate's Jewish campaign Ms. Adler — whose strength is primarily among the New York-based big-money Jew- ish community — will focus more on planning for the up- coming convention, while Ms. Ehrman will will focus more on organizing the Jew- ish pro-Clinton effort around the country. The biggest wild card in the deck involves Jewish support for Mr. Perot. "Jews, more than most groups, demand content from their candidates," sal? Mr. Lichtman. "So far, Per has not obliged." Nevertheless, son_ California primary exit polir_ showed that more than a quarter of the Jews who voted in the Democratic primary would have pre ferred voting for Mr. Perot — less than the number for non-Jewish Democrats, but still worrisome to Jewish Democratic leaders. "More and more, I hear friends who are talking seri- ously about Perot," said a Jewish Democratic activist. "The Jewish leadership is al-most entirely backing Clinton. But I think we're going to see a situation where Jewish voters are just as susceptible to the Perot phenomenon as the rest of the electorate." . Mixed Results In California T uesday's primary elec- tions represented mixed news for pro- Israel groups. In California, a big in- vestment by pro-Israel ac- tivists in the Senate cam- paign of Rep. Mel Levine did not pay off; despite his huge bankroll and aggressive advertising, Mr. Levine came in third behind Rep. Barbara Boxer, the winner of the Democratic primary, and Lt. Gov. Leo McCarthy. Mr. Levine was apparentl y hurt by his attack ads, an: by the strong wave of sup port for women candidates in the wake of the Clarence