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Danger From Iran
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delivery and, within a year,
it is likely to deploy long-
range Scud-D missiles,
which have been developed
by North Korea.
The missiles, which are
believed to be highly accu-
rate over a range of 1,000
miles, have been tailor-made
to specifications provided by
Iran and Libya, allowing the
two states to realize their
goal of having the means to
strike any part of Israel from
within their own territory.
According to Pentagon
sources, Iran has ordered
150 Scud-D missiles, also
known as the Nudong-1, at a
cost of $320 million. They
will be capable of carrying
nuclear warheads, as well as
conventional weapons
weighing up to one ton, more
than double the payload
delivered by the Iraqi Scuds
during the Gulf War.
Commenting on the devel-
opment, Newsday described
the Scud-D as "the ideal
terror weapon" for striking
at densely populated areas:
"It is easy to imagine the
amount of damage the new
missile could cause in 'Area
A' (central Israel)."
At the same time, Israeli
military analyst Alex
Fishman, writing in the
Hebrew-language daily,
Hadashot, noted: "A Middle
East in which Israel is
threatened by a Libyan-
Iranian missile umbrella is a
totally changed region."
According to Western
sources, Iran is acquiring
not only the finished product
but also the missile
technology and has already
completed plans for con-
structing its own Scud-D
production plant.
They believe Israel's re-
straint in the face of the Ira-
qi missile attack during the
Gulf War has been inter-
preted in the Arab world as
an indication of vulnerabili-
ty and weakness.
The Iranians, wrote Mr.
Fishman, are confidently
entering the vacuum left by
the destruction of Iraq's non-
conventional power, and
once its new missiles are
delivered "they will not
hesitate to fire them." The
Libyans, he added, "also will
have no inhibitions."
The sources believe the
nuclearization of the region
carries immediate and ob-
vious dangers for Israel and
will require a complete
reappraisal of its fundamen-
tal military and defensive
doctrines. El
Mideast Talks
Take A New Tack
JAMES D. BESSER
Washington Correspondent
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ost of the reporting
on the Middle East
multilateral talks,
which opened a new round
this week, focused on who
was boycotting which
meeting. But these low-key
sessions — symposia rather
than negotiations — were
designed to allow par-
ticipants an opportunity to
sketch out their opening
positions.
"Nobody expects anything
more than a preliminary
definition of goals and prob-
lems and methodologies,"
said Shimon. Shamir, a
former Israeli ambassador to
Egypt and a fellow at the
U.S. Peace Institute in
Washington. "It is, in a way,
a preliminary study group."
But in the long term, he
said, the multilateral peace
talks could prove an impor-
tant complement to the
ongoing bilateral talks bet-
ween Israel and her Arab
neighbors.
"The bilateral talks are
primarily political," he said.
"Ideally, the multilateral
talks will deal with all of the
other factors that are needed
to contribute to a genuine
peace. Peace is not just the
solution of a particular set of
political issues; it will have
to be a multi-dimensional
interaction between these
nations, a sharing in a
number of important areas."
The multilateral track of
the peace process began with
preliminary meetings in
Moscow on January 28,
under joint American-
Russian sponsorship.
This round of multilateral
talks included a session on
weapons proliferation in
"It's going exactly
according to the
book," said a
spokesperson for
the Israeli
delegation in
Washington.
Washington, meetings on
water resources in Vienna
and a session on envi-
ronmental issues, scheduled
for Tokyo next week.
But Israeli negotiators
boycotted sessions on refu-
gee matters in Ottawa and
on economic development in
Brussels because of the in-
clusion of Palestinians from