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April 24, 1992 - Image 38

Resource type:
Text
Publication:
The Detroit Jewish News, 1992-04-24

Disclaimer: Computer generated plain text may have errors. Read more about this.

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I

n physics, momentum is
defined as a product of
forward motion. But in
diplomacy, momentum can
mean something less — like
a lack of slippage.
That definition seems to be
the operative one as dele-
gates get ready for the four-
th round of bilateral Middle
East peace talks, scheduled
to resume in Washington on
Monday.
With political factors both
here and in Jerusalem dic-
tating extreme caution,
nobody expects the new
round of talks to produce any
significant forward move-
ment.
And with U.S.-Israel rela-
tions still in a tailspin, it
seems unlikely that the
American government will
attempt any dramatic moves
to break the stalemate.
Yet the fact that next
week's talks are generating
little interest, say some
observers, may indicate that
the peace process is taking
hold. Only, they say, when
participants abandon their
initial high expectations for
the talks and settle down to
the long, grueling process of
taking small steps toward a
settlement will the peace
process really begin to work.
Nevertheless, the real sub-
text to this week's talks will
be politics in both Israel and
the United States.
"I don't thing we're going
to see real, substantive
negotiations because we're
so close to the Israeli elec-
tions," said William Quandt,
a Middle East specialist with
the Brookings Institution in
Washington and a former
national security aide to
President Jimmy Carter.
"It's hard to imagine that
this is anything more than
marking time," he said. "It's
not reasonable to expect
either side of the negotia-
tions to make big moves at
this time."
Instead, he suggested, this
fourth round of talks will
again emphasize
"ritualism:" Participants
will repeat old positions, and
continue their efforts to pit-
ch them through the Ameri-
can media.
"It's important not to ex-
pect any breakthroughs,"
Mr. Quandt said. "But it's

also very significant that
there is unlikely to be any
collapse."
Administration officials
generally accept that analy-
sis. Until Israelis vote in
June, negotiators will simp-
ly be running in place.
State Department officials
privately acknowledge that
Prime Minister Yitzhak
Shamir is walking a political
tightrope as the peace talks
reconvene.
On one hand, he cannot af-
ford to give the impression
that his government is at-
tempting to sink the peace
talks through endless
stalemate. At the same time,

Until Israelis vote
in June,
negotiators will
simply be running
in place.

he cannot afford any hints
that a new Likud govern-
ment might be willing to
make the kinds of conces-
sions that most parties agree
are essential to end the cur-
rent stalemate.
And with the possibility of
a new, more flexible
government being installed
soon in Jerusalem, Arab
delegations have little in-
centive to offer new pro-
posals that might break the
impasse.
Israeli politics also figure
into the administration's
expected response to the new
round of talks.
Since the beginning of the
talks, the Arab delegations
and, in particular, the Pales-
tinians have worked hard to
generate direct American
intervention. The State
Department has resisted
this pressure.
At the end of the last
Tound of talks, Secretary of
State James Baker sent a
clear signal that American
intervention would not be
forthcoming when he said
Palestinians were
"posturing" instead of nego-
tiating.
But this time, the uncer-
tain Israeli political situa-
tion will make the ad-
ministration even more
wary about intervening in
the talks.
"The administration has
decided to put the Arab-
Israeli issue in the icebox
until after the Israeli elec-

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