THE ISRAELI ELECTION

le Aviv Mood

"Mainly because of their policy toward the settle-
ments. It's going to lose us the loan guarantees from
the U.S., and we can't afford that. Plus, Sharon and
Shamir, they're not my type, too militant. But I don't
know who I am going to vote for. A lot of my friends
say the same thing. It's very hard for them to choose
a party. A lot of them say they're not going to vote at
all."
Why did she vote Likud last time? Their settlement
policy hasn't changed, after all. "I don't really know
why," Mrs. Tohar replied, "maybe it was an emotion-
al thing."
In sum, she sounded a little confused. This pointed
up one of the surprising things that came through very
clearly to me, while riding buses around Tel Aviv and
talking to potential voters. Many of them don't know
what's going on. Contrary to the stereotype of the Is-
raeli as a news junkie, his mind marinated in politics,
a number of the people I talked to said they didn't care,
or said banal things like "they all make promises and
do nothing."
One of the toughest interviews is the Russian im-
migrant. Most of them speak minimal, tortured He-
brew, and in general they have only the most
superficial idea of the Israeli political land-
scape. Many are afraid to open up about their
views, and often seem to say what they think
you want to hear.
"I don't want politics, all Jews together,"
said one trombonist playing in front of a de-
partment store, one of the many immigrant
street musicians around the city. Yet more
than 200,000 of them are expected to vote
on June 23, and if either Labor or Likud can

appeal deeply to them, the immigrant vote could be
decisive.
When the Russians started flooding into Israel sev-
eral years ago, the thinking was that they would vote
Likud because they wanted nothing to do with any
party, like Labor, that had a red flag as its symbol and
the "Internationale" as its hymn. Since the first im-
migrants arrived, though, the thinking has changed.
The economy is so rough for them — about 40 percent
of the immigrants are unemployed — that in the most
recent polls, whatever they're worth, a majority of Rus-
sians lean toward Labor.
While there are relatively few Russians living in Tel
Aviv, because of the high rents, there are large num-
bers of retirees. One of their favorite spots is the bench-
es in DizengoffSquare, where they can talk and watch
the people going by.
Sitting on one of the benches was Zvi Ben-Moshe,
a retired painter who lives nearby. Since Israel was
founded, Mr. Ben-Moshe has voted with the majority
of Israelis — for Labor until 1977, then for Likud.
"I used to hear Begin speak before the elections,
right here in Dizengoff Square, and he used to fire up
the people," Mr. Ben- Moshe recalled. "He used to

0 ne big question mark: how
will the hundreds of thousands of
new immigrants vote?

26

FRIDAY, MARCH 27, 1992

promise that if the Likud gets in, they would change
everything. At that time there was so much corrup-
tion in the government, people were losing faith — a
lot of young people left the country. There was unem-
ployment, young people getting out of the army couldn't
afford a place to live. So in 1977, I thought I'd give him
a chance. Now it turns out the country has gone down
even lower from all this Likud business."
Mr. Ben-Moshe said most people want a unity gov-
ernment. "They want Rabin to find a common lan-
guage with Shamir, and throw the religious parties
out of the government. I like Rabin — he's more hon-
est than Peres — but I don't know if I'll vote for Labor.
But Likud? Not again."
I think Zvi Ben-Moshe continues to represent the
mainstream of the Israeli voters. They're fed up with
Likud, and they have more trust for Labor now that
Mr. Rabin is at the helm, although they're not alto-
gether enamored with his flat, colorless style.
Also, they are furious at the way the ultra-Ortho-
dox parties, holding the balance of power in the right-
left split, have been able to demand and get anything
they want from the government.
Yet unless Labor or Likud can command a large plu-
rality in the election and move out of the virtual
deadlock that has almost paralyzed Israeli politics
since 1985, the ultra-Orthodox will again hold the
key to power in this election.
Or maybe Da, the new Russian party, will carry
the Russian vote. Or maybe Likud and Labor will
join in another unity government, and this elec-
tion won't be the decisive, historic one that the pun-
dits are predicting.
Remember: punditry is a loser's game in Israel.

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