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Southfield 354.3300 Jerusalem (JTA) — While the Jewish Agency for Israel is making preparations to handle as many as 80,000 to 100,000 immigrants a mon- th in 1992, it does not expect an aliyah of that magnitude to materialize, despite vola- tile conditions in the repub- lics of the former -Soviet Union. "No basic changes in the pattern of aliyah have been discerned, and so with mon- thly and seasonal variations, we expect a steady flow of around 10,000 ohm per mon- th during 1992, yielding between 120,000 and 150,000" for the year, Jew- ish Agency Chairman Sim- cha Dinitz told reporters at a year-end news conference last week. Mr. Dinitz was confident, however, that even at that conservative rate, an addi- tional 600,000 Jews will have settled in Israel by the end of 1995, confirming his original forecast of 1 million olim since mass immigration began in 1989. As of last week, aliyah for 1991 totaled 169,273 ar- rivals, of whom 143,705 were from the former Soviet Union and 9,754 from Ethi- opia. That compares with a total of 181,759 Jews from the Soviet Union in 1990. Mr. Dinitz said the Jewish Agency is completing its organizational redeploy- ment in response to recent strategic and logistical changes in the now- independent republics of the former Soviet Union. "Israel has been fortunate in developing good relations with each of the individual republics and today main- tains credible relations with many of their local govern- ments," he said. He announced that by the end of February, more than 16 direct flights weekly will be arriving at Ben-Gurion Airport from Moscow and St. Petersburg, Russia; Kishinev, Moldavia; Riga, Latvia; Kiev and Odessa, Ukraine; Minsk, Belarus; and Tashkent, Uzbekistan. The aliyah infrastructure in those cities is being strengthened, and prepara- tions are quietly under way to open another terminal in Asiatic Russia. Those come in addition to the five transit stations in Europe where emigres that arrive by land, air and sea transfer to flights for Israel. They are located in Budapest, Hungary; Bucharest, Romania; War- saw, Poland; Helsinki, Finland; and Varna, Bulgaria. The transit station in Var- na, on the Black Sea, will eventually be closed. "Direct flights remain the cheapest, fastest and safest route to Israel," Mr. Dinitz said. "They can presently br- ing up to 20,000 olim per month." But "should the need arise," he said, "the number of direct flights can be doubled, so that with the five transit stations, up to 100,000 ohm can be flown to Israel in a month." The sea route is the least feasible, according to the Jewish Agency chairman, because it is the longest, least safe and costliest. But if the negative factors can be significantly reduced, sea routes will also be utiliz- ed, he said. A Greek passenger and car ferry chartered by a Chris- tian evangelical group land- ed nearly 500 immigrants from the Ukrainian port of Odessa last week in Haifa. They enjoyed nearly 10 times the baggage allowance of air travelers. Mr. Dinitz said that while the Jewish Agency is cutting back on expenses at its various transit stations, it will still be equipped to pro- vide a range of orientation and information services for ohm, such as registration for Hebrew courses, employ- ment services and housing. A private survey con- ducted by the Israel Manufacturers Association showed that between January 1990 and September 1991, 36,000 ohm, mostly from the former Soviet Union, found jobs in Israeli industry. They now comprise up 12 percent of Israel's industrial labor force. But figures recently released by the Absorption Ministry showed that 40,000 ohm are on the dole. "Israel's ability to provide Soviet ohm with satisfactory jobs, not necessarily in their professions, remains the litmus test of aliyah absorp- tion," Mr. Dinitz said. He said meetings of the Cabinet committee on im- migrant absorption have been frustrating and criticized Prime Minister Yitzhak Shamir for doing little but promising to take "more interest" in the sub- ject. • -4 I -4 -4 -4 • 4