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Continued from preceding page
who invented a device that
keeps air clean and safe from
bacterial viruses released
during laser surgery.
The company also is rep-
resenting two other inven-
tors, one who developed a
marine speedometer with
much improved accuracy. It
should be available in stores
this fall.
For now, ideas are con-
tracted out to engineers and
designers. Someday, Jeff
Sloan hopes everything is
handled in-house.
Those who know him say
Jeff Sloan is driven. He
always seems to be working
— on something. Yet his
long-term plans include a bit
of leisure. He said he will
work hard today so he can
retire at a young age.
Maybe, then, he can do
what he loves best: play
guitar and sail in Harbor
Springs.
I NEWS I
Consequences
If Loan Falls Through
Tel Aviv (JTA) — A 150-
page report on Israel's econ-
omic outlook, due to be sent
to Bush administration offi-
cials in Washington this
week, predicts an un-
precedented unemployment
rate of 16.2 percent by 1996
if Israel does not receive U.S.
guarantees for $10 billion in
desperately needed loans.
The dearth of investment
capital would result in
360,000 jobless Israelis four
years from now, when the
number of immigrants,
mainly from the former
Soviet Union, reaches 1 mill-
ion, the report says.
The report, analyzed ex-
tensively by the Israeli daily
Ma'ariv, was prepared by
Ya'akov Lifshitz, former di-
rector general of the Finance
Ministry, at the request of
Finance Minister Yitzhak
Moda'i.
Its appearance in Wash-
ington will coincide roughly
with the end of the 120-day
waiting period during which
Congress was asked to forgo
consideration of Israel's re-
quest for the loan guar-
antees.
Without the infusion of
capital through the guar-
anteed loans, the economy
would likely achieve an an-
nual growth rate of only 5.8
percent, and the per capita
standard of living would
drop one half of 1 percent a
year, the report says.
The government would be
forced to raise taxes. But an
even bigger concern is that
immigrants with
technological potential
would leave the country, and
the emigration of young
adults born in Israel would
also increase.
The bright side of the
report is its optimism about
Israel's ability to repay the
guaranteed loans. It stresses
that Israel has met all of the
commitments it took upon
itself in the past.
The document predicts an
N
economic upturn in the se-
cond half of the 1990s, with
exports rising at an average
annual rate of 11.5 percent
until the end of the decade.
Its assumption is that
200,000 immigrants will ar-
rive in each of the next three
years. In 1995, the number
of immigrants will drop to
70,000, and in the following
year will return to the level
that existed prior to the
massive immigration wave.
Israel will need the enor-
mous sum of $26.5 billion for
the absorption of 1 million
immigrants, more than
double the amount it is ask-
ing the U.S. administration
to guarantee over the next
five years.
Israel's balance of
payments deficit would grow
in that period to an un-
precedented $42 billion.
Ma'ariv observed that the
report, though dealing with
a state economy, is basically
the same as the forecast of
any company that wants to
attract capital.
At the moment, the focus
on the guarantees is mainly
political, Ma'ariv said. But
the government understands
that even if it overcomes the
political obstacles, $10
billion are not just given
away. It is impossible to re-
quest such an amount
without the ability to repay
being appropriately present-
ed.
The report therefore is a
comprehensive work, not
just an ad hoc effort.
The document is intended
to explain to U.S. decision-
makers why Israel needs
this money and how it can
use it as momentum for
growth. It also seeks to con-
vince the guarantor that
Israel is a good risk.
Ma'ariv said that if there
are no surprising revelations
in Lifshitz's report, it stands
as a professional forecast for
the Israeli economy.
c