CLOSE-UP

ly, as I finish dictating a
sentence that says "an Iraqi
missile attack on Israel is
imminent," an unearthly
mournful wail rises from the
Old City beneath my
window. Moments later, a
quavering, disembodied
voice blasts out a message
from the hotel radio at my
bedside.
"You are requested to
vacate your room immedi-
ately . . . Take your gas
masks and go to the fifth
floor where we have spe-
cially marked sealed rooms
for your safety . . ."
I am transfixed by the
urgency of the moment.
Physically and intellectually
I am prepared, but nothing
can prepare one for the
psychological shock of stark
reality. My copytaker hears
the tumult down the tele-
phone line. She says she is
praying for me.
An entire floor of the hotel
has been equipped for
chemical warfare. The
windows and ventilation
shafts of each room are me-
ticulously covered with
transparent plastic sheeting.
Bottled water and biscuits

To be confined with
a German in such
circumstances is a
matter of supreme
irony.

are laid out on the table. I
soak a towel in a solution of
bicarbonate of soda, wedge it
under the door and fit my
gas mask for the first time.
My companion, with whom
I will share another two
dozen such occasions in this
bizarre environment, is still
struggling with the straps of
his mask as he tries to follow
the event on CNN.
The view from the window
could be a film set. The Old
City walls are gently illumi-
nated, the skyline
dominated by the gold and
silver domes on the Temple
Mount. The only signs of
traffic are provided by the
blue lights of police vehicles
which continue their
methodical patrol through
the veins of the city.
The scene outside is one of
utter tranquillity and peace.
Inside the gas mask I
make a conscious effort to
slow down my breathing
rate, rationalize my fears
and relax.
If the missile carries a
conventional warhead it will

FRIDAY, JANUARY 17, 1992

almost certainly be aimed at
Tel Aviv to avoid damaging
the Islamic holy sites. If it
carries a chemical payload,
it is likely to be aimed at
Jerusalem, relying not on its
explosive force but rather on
a controlled mid-air detona-
tion to maximize the disper-
sal of its deadly contents and
minimize damage to proper-
ty•
It takes four minutes for a
missile to reach Israel from
Iraq's Western Desert, but
the region's traditional po-
litical antagonisms
significantly reduce the
warning time.
The Scud launch is picked
up by satellite and com-
municated to a base station
in Saudi Arabia. From there
it is flashed to a transmitter
in Australia and then
relayed to Washington. By
the time the warning
reaches Jerusalem the mo-
ment of impact is less than
90 seconds away.
It is estimated that the
Scuds are accurate to within
three-quarters of a mile over
400 miles. I know that the
chances of being affected are
small, but it is the sheer ar-
bitrariness of the attack that
instills fear.
Within minutes, we learn
from CNN that the missile
has hit Tel Aviv, but we are
instructed to remain in the
sealed room, where we will
spend a further four hours
until it is established that
the Scud was carrying a con-
ventional warhead.
Weeks later, when Presi-
dent Bush calls a halt to the
allied offensive, there is no
sense of jubilation or victory,
rather a feeling of
bewilderment and in-
completeness.
No one doubted the inter-
national coalition would
prevail. Equally, no one
imagined the war would end
with the allies just 48 hours
from Baghdad and Saddam
Hussein still in power.
Israelis speak bitterly of a
"hollow victory" and refer
ominously to "unfinished
business." It will take a long
time for the dust to settle.
As I check out of the King
David, the Stars and Stripes
are being hoisted on a small
flagstaff in the lobby for Sec-
retary of State James Baker,
who is arriving later in the
day.
In the past weeks I had
written tens of thousands of
words on the Gulf conflict.
But at that moment I had a
feeling that the story is only
just beginning. ❑

Oil-soaked birds on a Kuwait beach dramatize the environmental danger of Iraq's damage to Kuwaiti oil fields.

The U.S Must
now Its Limits

The United States' experience in the Middle East
should have been a learning experience.

DANIEL PIPES

Special to The Jewish News

0

n the eve of the war
with Iraq, I told an in-
terviewer that the
crisis over Kuwait "is the big-
gest event since World War II.
We can only just begin to im-
agine the implications for
every international problem
— from oil to terrorism."
Now, a year later, I'm not
quite so convinced of that
assertion.
Of course, Desert Storm
did lead to some important
developments in the Middle

Daniel Pipes is director of the
Foreign Policy Research In-
stitute in Philadelphia.

East. Iraqi power disap-
peared almost overnight.
Kurds are increasingly
autonomous. Arabs and
Israelis are meeting regular-
ly and talking and the oppo-
sition to these talks is
minimal. Reversing a stan-
dard policy, the Syrians are
willing officially to meet
Israelis and even utter
phrases like "land for
peace." After seventy years
of rejectionism, Palestinians
have made their first ten-
tative moves toward com-
promise.
But these are hardly earth-
shaking changes. Look at
what did not happen: The
coalition against Iraq did not
start a new era in

U.S.-Soviet relations; in-
stead, the Soviet Union
promptly disappeared. The
coalition now appears to
have been a one-time thing;
is anyone stopping Serbian
aggression?
The Vietnam syndrome
may be weaker but it's not
gone; nor is it all that impor-
tant at a time when econ-
omic protectionism is the
key issue. The debate over
American use of force hasn't
changed that much.
In the Middle East, much
remains surprisingly as it
was. Saddam Hussein re-
mains in power, barbaric,
truculent, and deceitful as
ever. Back home, Kuwaitis
have reverted as thoroughly

,