BACKGROUND

Artwork from the Los Angeles Times by Catherine Kanner. Copyrighte 1991. Catherine Kanner. Distributed by Los Angeles Times Syndicate.

The Cup Is Half Full

The peace talks have not collapsed, but Syria
remains a major source of concern.

HELEN DAVIS

Foreign Correspondent

T

•

he Middle East peace
talks, which adjourn-
ed in Washington last
week, have not achieved any
dramatic breakthrough, but
nor have they collapsed.
That in itself is a small sign
of progress.
Six weeks after the
acrimonious exchanges at
the official diplomatic open-
ing in Madrid's Royal
Palace, Israeli delegates are
still talking to the Syrians,
the Lebanese, the Jorda-
nians and to the Palestin-
ians.
The public rhetoric re-
mains chilly, sometimes
hostile; and that might in-
deed be a reflection of the
atmosphere both in the ne-
gotiating rooms and on the
corridor couches in the State
Department.
It is not, however,
necessarily an accurate
reflection of the state of
mind of the participants or a
true and complete reading of
the state of the talks.
While the negotiations
may not be infused with

warmth, all the parties
which are commuting to
Washington have their own
compelling interest in keep-
ing them alive.
Whether they eventually
realize the aspirations of a
comprehensive peace is still
an open question, but with
the talks scheduled to
resume in Washington on
January 7, most parties
clearly believe there is still
something to talk about.
There are no grounds for
assuming that any concrete
progress has actually been
achieved, but at the same
time all the parties have ob-
vious domestic reasons for
not showing their hand if, in
fact, some incremental ad-
vances have been made.
The various antagonists
have had years to weigh
each others' strengths and
weakness, to assess negotia-
ting positions and to gauge
the room for maneuver.
What is now going on is an
elaborate attempt to solve a
complex puzzle in which
many parts must be made to
fit precisely and simulta-
neously.
It is, for example, entirely
possible that the concentra-

tion on petty procedural
matters in talks between the
Israelis and the Palestinians
is a deliberately constructed
smokescreen designed to
distract public attention
from progress on the hard
issues.
The Palestinians,
vulnerable after being dip-
lomatically and econ-
omically devastated by the
Gulf War, have already

President Assad
may well calculate
that he will never
be better equipped
for a serious
confrontation with
Israel than now.

stated their willingness to
accept Israel's offer of
autonomy, or self- govern-
ment, as an interim step
toward a final settlement.
At this stage in the Israeli-
Palestinian negotiations,
the differences are symbolic
and procedural rather than
real and substantive, but
any one of a number of fac-
tors could be inhibiting a
premature declaration of

progress and preventing the
two sides from publicly
breaking the ice.
The most important single
constraint is likely to be the
Syrians, who are anxious to
prevent the Palestinians
from racing ahead in the
process, achieving a set-
tlement they perceive to be
contrary to their interests
and creating a momentum
that could conceivably
stampede Damascus into a
political compromise.
It is entirely feasible that
Syrian President Hafez al-
Assad, who has assumed
control over Lebanon, is us-
ing the fate of the 300,000
"illegal" Palestinian
residents in Lebanon as a
lever to stall the pace of the
negotiations.
It is also possible that
while the Palestinians are
anxious to notch up political
gains, they do not want to
appear too eager, wary of the
affect this will have on their
domestic constituency inside
the territories and on the
fundamentalist Hamas
movement, whose uncom-
promising nature is gaining
support.
Yet another constraint

might be a genuine negotia-
ting tactic by the Palestin-
ians who, having accepted
the principle of a half- loaf,
are seeking to push back the
limits of the Israeli offer, un-
couple themselves from Jor-
dan and expand the tat ins of
self- government.
King Hussein of Jordan,
also wounded by the experi-
ence of the Gulf War, is anx-
ious to parlay his longstan-
ding de facto accommodation
into a de jure peace treaty
with Israel and restore his
moderate credentials in the
West.
Moreover, he is hoping
that a settlement between
Israel and the Palestinians
will draw the teeth of the
radicals who threaten his
kingdom from within and
without and relieve the
pressure on his shaky throne
from Jordan's increasingly
restive Palestinian majority.
Like the Palestinians,
however, he is likely to be
inhibited by the attitude of
his powerful, predatory
Syrian neighbor, with whom
coexistence has always been
a tenuous and dangerous af-
fair.
The Jordanian monarch

THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS

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