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12 Mile Rd. at Evergreen

559-3580

Southfield

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38

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 20, 1991

26221 Southfield Road

(between 10 and 11 Mile Roads)

(313) 557-4230

standards are expected to
fall by one-third when price
controls are lifted on
January 1, causing enor-
mous additional hardship,
particularly for those who
are already suffering the
most.
"These people will be ripe
for a fascist takeover," Pro-
fessor McCauley said.
The best efforts of the
other Slav republics to
create decent, civilized
regimes are also likely to be
broken on the rock of econ-
omic chaos. Amid the
scramble for scarce
resources, some are already
resorting to desperate,
medieval-style barter.
"People are going to fight
for commodities like
diamonds, gold, oil, natural
gas — anything that can be
sold on the capitalist
markets," said Professor
McCaulay. "Republics are
going to cut each others' pipe
lines, everything will break
down. There will be a lot of
trouble, a lot of bloodshed."
Galia Golan, a specialist
on Soviet affairs at the Heb-
rew University of
Jerusalem, agrees that the
economy will provide the
trigger for unrest. "But the
real horror show will be over
the ethnic issue, which could
cause border disputes and
civil wars," she said.
"People in Russia are
clearly afraid of fascism — it
could happen easily — but
the Jews are reluctant to
come to Israel because of (job
and housing problems). They
are hanging on in the hope
that things will improve
there.
"At the same time,
though, increasing numbers
are applying for permission
to leave. That is their in-
surance policy. If anyone
asked me what to do, I would
tell them to get out at once.
The uncertainty is too
great."
The world now stands on
the brink of a new year that
promises to be every bit as
turbulent within the dying
Soviet empire as the
previous two years were in
its Eastern European col-
onies.
For just as the West
cheered the fall of the Berlin
Wall and the consignment of
Romania's Ceaucescu to a
premature grave, it must
now confront the sober con-
sequences of the collapse of
the Soviet Union.
The precise form those
consequences will take is
anybody's guess, but
chances are that things will
get worse without any im-
mediate prospect of getting
better.

Secretary of State James
Baker visited Moscow this
week in search of assurances
that some 30,000 Soviet
nuclear weapons are safely
under control and will not be
used in any future battles
between the republics or
against perceived enemies in
the West.
There is also concern, less
easily policed, that rogue re-
publics or individual scien-
tists might be tempted to
transfer weapons or
technology to nuclear-
hungry states abroad — in-
cluding Arab or Moslem
nations hostile to Israel.
Of course, there is a chance
that the people of the former
Soviet Union will behave
with exemplary good sense
and starve stoically. They
might bear their
hopelessness with fortitude
and regard their predica-
ment with philosophical
good humor.
But that is unlikely. The
center has not held, things
are falling apart and future
prospects offer little cause
for hope, particularly for the
Jews.
"No one is optimistic about
the short-term future," said
Professor McCauley. "They
are entering a black hole
and things are going to get a
lot worse." ❑

(NEWS

Bank Acts
For Stability

Jerusalem (JTA)
The
Treasury and Bank of Israel
acted this week to stabilize
the foreign exchange rate
and discourage speculation
in foreign currency.
Finance Minister Yitzhak
Moda'i and Professor Jacob
Frenkel, governor of Israel's
central bank, announced a
12 percent limit on the
devaluation of the shekel,
which would be reached
gradually by the end of 1992.
Their expectation is that if
speculators can no longer
expect frequent sharp fluc-
tuations in the exchange
rates, they would not gamble
with large purchases of for-
eign currencies.
Until now, currency
speculators have often
managed to manipulate the
exchange rates and force the
government to devalue the
shekel.
Mr. Moda'i expressed hope
that another benefit of the
new policy would be to
reduce the inflation rate,
since the financial commun-
ity will know in advance
that devaluation cannot ex-
ceed 12 percent.

—