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THE JEWISH NEWS
Aliyah Surge
Is Predicted
Jerusalem (JTA) — In-
stability in the rapidly
dissolving Soviet Union
could confront Israel next
year with new masses of
immigrants without the
means to absorb them, ac-
cording to government and
Jewish Agency experts.
Uri Gordon, director of the
Jewish Agency's Immigra-
tion Department, predicted
this week that as many as
400,000 Soviet olim would
arrive in 1992, more than
double this year's number.
But Israel is unprepared to
cope with such large
numbers, and the housing
and unemployment crises
may reach new peaks, Mr.
Gordon warned.
Despite the instability in
the old Soviet Union, aliyah
has been declining in
months, though hundreds of
olim are still arriving here
each week. About 161,721
immigrants have arrived
since the beginning of the
year, fewer than in the same
period last year.
There have been only
2,207 arrivals since the start
of this month, fewer than in
the same period of earlier
months.
Some aliyah experts, in-
cluding Mr. Peretz, believe
developments in the Soviet
Union will not be reflected
by an immediate jump in the
number of immigrants. They
believe the mass exodus will
come later.
Israel should be prepared
for a "flood of immigration,"
the absorption minister told
the Knesset Finance Com-
mittee. on He urged an im-
mediate increase in the ab-
sorption budget.
But Jewish Agency
Chairman Simcha Dinitz is
concerned that mounting
tension in the Soviet
breakaway republics could
produce such huge numbers
of people wanting to leave
that the gates will be
slammed shut on all, in-
cluding Jews.
Mr. Dinitz warned that
Israel may "miss the boat"
on absorption while condi-
tions develop in the Soviet
republics that make the exit
of Jews increasingly
difficult.
He is also worried that
with a 30 percent
unemployment rate among
olim in Israel, the United
States may enlarge its refu-
gee quota for Soviet Jews
beyond the present 40,000 a
year.
Mr. Dinitz was critical of
the government's absorption
policy.