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Opinion Polls Show
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Tel Aviv (JTA) — The
Likud bloc is enjoying a
surge of public popularity in
the aftermath of the Madrid
peace conference, a new opi-
nion poll shows.
The Labor Party, on the
other hand, has declined to
one of its lowest points in re-
cent years.
According to a Smith
Research Center survey
conducted between Nov. 4
and 12, if elections were held
now, Likud would thrash
Labor by winning 37 percent
of the vote, compared to 22
percent for Labor.
Labor has lost nearly a
third of the 3L5 percent who
supported it in the 1988
Knesset elections. The par-
ty's popularity fell 2 full
percentage points from
August, when an earlier
Smith poll gave it 24 percent
of the vote, if elections were
held then.
Likud climbed to 37 per-
cent from 33 percent in
August and 34 percent in the
1988 elections. But accor-
ding to another poll, its pop-
ularity has slipped among
new immigrants from the
Soviet Union, whose once
solid support has eroded by 9
percent since 1989.
The Soviet olim increas-
ingly favor starting an im-
migrants' party.
Nevertheless, the Likud-
nationalist camp gained 6
percentage points since
1988, while the Labor-leftist
"peace camp" lost nearly 7
percentage points. The re-
ligious parties dropped 4
points.
But the government coali-
tion, which consists of the re-
ligious parties and parties
on the far right, commands a
strong 59.5 percent lead over
the opposition, which
together accounts for only
33.5 percent of the vote.
In the latest poll, the three
leftist peace parties combin-
ed won 11.5 percent ap-
proval, compared to 9.5 per-
cent for the three far-right
coalition parties, which gen-
erally opposed the Madrid
peace talks.
The Citizens Rights
Movement was the strongest
of the peace parties, polling
7 percent in the latest poll.
That was down from 7.5 per-
cent in August but well
above the 4.5 percent the
CRM won in the 1988 elec-
tions.
The peace bloc, which also
includes Mapam and the
Center- Shinui Movement,
may benefit in the months
ahead from defections by
Laborites disenchanted by
their party's failure to
mount a stronger opposition
to Likud.
On the far right, Tehiya
and Tsomet polled 3 percent
each, down from 3.5 percent
in August. The extremist
Moledet led with 3.5 percent,
down from 4 percent in the
August poll.
Among the religious par-
ties, Shas dropped to 2 per-
cent from 5.5 percent in the
1988 elections and 3 percent
in August. That could be the
toll taken by the investiga-
tions into alleged financial
improprieties by the party's
top politicians.
The National Religious
Party stayed at 4 percent,
the same as 1988. The
The Soviet olim
increasingly favor
starting an
immigrants' party.
Agudat Yisrael and Degel
HaTorah parties had a com-
bined rating of 6 percent,
down from 6.5 percent in
1988.
Soviet immigrants showed
a strong right-wing bias
since they began pouring
into Israel in 1989. But a
Tazpit Research Institute
poll taken in October showed
a significant erosion of sup-
port for Likud and its right-
wing partners.
Among the 820 Soviet ohm
questioned, who arrived
between September 1989
and September 1991, 37 per-
cent said they would vote for
a right-wing party in the
next elections, down from 46
percent in a poll last April.
Meanwhile, support for a
party on the left rose to 26
percent among Soviet Jews,
from 21 percent in April.
Support for religious parties
among the immigrants fell
from 4 percent in April to 1
percent in October.
Tazpit believes Soviet im-
migrant voters could ac-
count for 7 to 10 Knesset
seats. They are being wooed
by both blocs. But at least 40
percent would favor an im-
migrants party over any of
the existing factions.
Only 25 percent of the
newcomers favor trading
territory for peace. The
Soviet Jews overwhelmingly
support a Likud candidate
for prime minister, com-
pared to 23 percent who
would choose a Laborite.
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