ummimmil NEWS

Coup Affects
Immigration

Washington (JTA) — The
failure of the coup staged by
hard-liners in Moscow is
likely to be a net gain for the
country's sizable Jewish
minority, Soviet experts and
advocates for Soviet Jewry
agree.
It is likely to embolden the
restored government of Pres-
ident Mikhail Gorbachev to
crack down on the same
ultra- conservative elements
that have opposed emigra-
tion reform and other lib-
eralized policies that have
generally benefited Jews.
Martin Wenick, executive
director of the National Con-
ference on Soviet Jewry, said
the episode will "probably
increase the potential for
emigration" from the Soviet
Union.
There is a much greater
likelihood that "the au-
thorities will fully live up to
their constitutional and
international obligations."
Activists point out that
Soviet Jews will feel polit-
ically secure in the short
term, but will wonder when
such a coup attempt might
occur again.
Soviet Jews will "start
asking if there will be next
time," said Rabbi A. James
Rudin of the American Jew-
ish Committee. .
Pamela Cohen, president
of the Union of Councils for
Soviet Jews, said the nerve-
racking events of this week
would confirm that "the
fears of Soviet Jews are
justified, and I think that
this will serve to spur on the
aliyah and the emigration."
But Adam Garfinkle,
senior analyst at the Foreign
Policy Research Institute in
Philadelphia, said that if
Soviet Jews emigrate in
larger numbers, it will likely
have more to do with con-
cern about basic survival
this coming winter than any
fallout from the coup.
He said Soviet Jews are
having more difficulty than
other Soviet citizens in
"hoarding" necessities in
expectation of supply shor-
tages this winter.
Such hoarding is often
done by bribing those who
transport goods throughout
the country. But "it's harder
for Jews to make bribes in
the Soviet Union because
(suppliers) just don't trust
them," Mr. Garfinkle said.
On the other hand, he said,
some Soviet Jews "will
imagine that there is a pro-
spect for fundamental
reform" that would make
the Soviet Union "a more
habitable place."

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