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After The Revolution

With the Soviet Union far weaker at home
and abroad, the fate of Soviet Jews — and
of Mideast peace — is being entirely
rethought.

ARTHUR J. MAGIDA

Special to The Jewish News

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t is much too early in the
post-coup era to deliver a
definitive prognosis for
the Soviet Union. Dis-
integration and greater
democracy are almost cer-
tainly in the Soviet empire's
future, possibly accom-
panied by a surge of nation-
alism punctuated by anti-
Semitism. But along with
the worsening coma of the
nation that Lenin and Stalin
built must come a wholesale
reworking of the calculus
regarding Soviet Jews —
those who remain and those
wishing to leave — and of
the USSR's role in the Mid-
dle East.
The almost certain
dissolution of the Soviet
Union means that the future
of its two million Jews will
hinge on conditions in the
republics that are swiftly
breaking away from the
Kremlin. Instrumental to
their fate will be the extent
of the republics' democracy,
the popularity of their
leaders — and their deter-
mination not to rouse the
rabble, and the ability (and
the will) of emerging govern-
ing institutions to counter
any nascent anti-Jewish
elements.
"It's all a very fluid, vola-
tile situation," said Martin
Wenick, executive director
of the National Conference
on Soviet Jewry. "There's a
great potential for unrest,
for scapegoating — and for
anarchy."
Mr. Wenick was concerned
about the ability of the
Soviet central government
to wield authority, and
about who may ultimately
control it.
"Gorbachev says he will
hold elections for his post,"
said Mr. Wenick. "But he's
an unpopular guy. He may
not win, and, in that case, we
have to worry about who will
oppose him."
Jews, said Mr. Wenick,
may stay in whatever re-
mains of the Soviet Union to
help build democracy. Or, he
added, they may question
why they should risk their

Arthur J Magida is a senior
writer for the
Baltimore Jewish Times.

lives by staying — and flee
for refuge to Israel.
For at least the near
future, said UCLA political
science professor Steven
Spiegel, the Soviet Union
"will not be an enormously
secure place in which to
live."
But he cautioned that if
anti-Semitism occurs as the
USSR dissolves, its severity
will depend on the dominant
ethnic groups in each repub-
lic.
Neither Mr. Wenick nor
Prof. Spiegel anticipated a
massive airlift for Soviet

The USSR's
dissolution means
the future of its two
million Jews
depends on
conditions in the
newly independent
republics.

Jews to Israel, similar to
those Israel masterminded
for Iraqi or Ethiopian Jews.
"There should be an order-
ly departure," said Mr.
Wenick. "It is not in any-
one's interest to have a
panicked exit."
A faltering Soviet Union
would turn it into an
emasculated ex-superpower
with significantly less inter-
national clout. Nevertheless,
experts expect the Mideast
peace conference co-
sponsored by the U.S. and
the USSR that had been ten-
tatively scheduled for Oc-
tober to still convene. At the
worst, said Prof. Spiegel, it
"may slip by a few weeks"
because the Soviets obvious-
ly have more pressing do-
mestic matters.
But the Kremlin's posture
regarding its former Arab
client states, Israel and the
Mideast in general will now
change drastically. Given
the Palestine Liberation
Organization's support for
the coup — "the PLO again
demonstrated its uncanny
instinct for futility," said
Marvin Feuerwerger, a
senior strategic fellow at the
Washington Institute for
Near East Policy — the
Soviet Union is expected to
be more moderate than
before the putsch, and less

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