INTERNATIONAL How Will Coup Impact Emigration And Peace. Kremlin chaos has the experts and politicians scrambling for answers to still•unresolved questions. JAMES BESSER and IRA RIFKIN I his week's apparently failed Mos- cow coup attempt raised serious questions about the future of Soviet Jewish emigration and Kremlin participation in the Middle East peace process. The initial reaction of officials and Soviet-Middle East specialists in Israel and the United States to the power-grab by Communist hardliners upset by the reforms of the Gorbachev era was one of deep concern. "This was one of .our major fears — that chaos would break out in the Soviet Union," Rep Benjamin Car- din (D-Md.) said early in the week. "This is very bad news for us. Our first goal is to figure out who's in control, and if there's any change in policy relating to emigration. "We need to think about ac- celerating the emigration process — getting as many Jews out as quickly as possible," he said. But by Wednesday, with the coup seemingly failed, according to all ac- counts, comments became decidedly more upbeat. There was even speculation that the coup's outcome could usher in an unprecedented era of stability for Soviet Jews, whose precarious situa- tion was underscored by the Kremlin power-grab. In the past, this line of thinking went, President Mikhail Gorbachev was forced to walk a tightrope bet- ween reformists and hardliners. That was one reason why the Soviet government did not crackdown on the rising tide of anti-Semitism in the USSR. Mr. Gorbachev simply could not afford to further alienate the conservative forces roiling just below the surface of Soviet society. Now, however, the Soviet reform James D. Besser and Ira Rifkin are, respectively, Washington correspondent and assistant editor of the Baltimore Jewish Times. Foreign Correspondent Helen Davis also contributed to this report. 30 FRIDAY, AUGUST 23, 1991 movement appears immeasurably strengthened. The coup may well have been the last gasp of a dying old-guard, leaving the reformers free to further loosen the reigns on emigration and other aspects of Soviet society. In addition, Washington insiders noted that the still-unpredictable nature of Soviet politics may make Congress more sympathetic to Soviet Jewish resettlement in Israel. What if anti-Semitism increases as a result of newly strengthened na- tionalist passions in various Soviet republics, including Moldavia, for example, where officials have re- portedly supported Jewish emigra- tion in large part only because they see it as a way of freeing up addi- tional housing for Moldavians. among Soviet Jews, Agency Chair- man Simcha Dinitz said minorities are always the first to be concerned when there is instability, "and this includes the Jews, of course." If there is a sharp increase in the number of refugees, it could also put new pressure on American Jewish leaders to re-open the sensitive question of U.S. refugee quotas, ac- tivists noted. Adding to the initial concern was the well-publicized assessment of Galia Golan, Israel's foremost spe- cialist on Soviet-Middle East rela- tions, who said the Kremlin hardliners behind the coup probably favored a cut in the steady flow of Jewish emigration, which has seen nearly 300,000 Soviet Jews leave for Israel since late 1989. "It is not in the nature of anti- Semites or ultra-nationalists to say, `Well, we don't like the Jews anyway, so let them all go.' They see This scenario holds that the week's crisis could provide a boost to efforts to provide Israel with $10 billion in absorption loan guar- antees, which may be even more crucial now that advocates for Soviet Jewry, and most Israeli officials, The still-unpredictable believe there will be an immediate nature of Soviet politics surge in the number of Jews seeking may make Congress to leave the USSR. more sympathetic to Continued Soviet chaos, should Soviet Jewish that occur, could turn that surge resettlement in Israel. into a full-blown panic. An emergency meeting of the Jew- emigration as Jews demanding ish Agency was held in Jerusalem privileges that are denied to others. Monday to consider a possible airlift They also see it as a means of of the 100,000 Jews who hold Soviet strengthening Israel," she said. exit visas but have not yet left (some Robert 0. Freedman, a Soviet and 60,000 of them also possess Israeli Middle East expert at Baltimore entry documents). Hebrew University, voiced an oppos- Hinting at the growing unease ing view, however. Coup leader Gennady Yanayev: Was the power-grab a last-ditch effort by Communist hardliners to scuttle Soviet reforms?