I ANALYSIS

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Why Assad Said Yes

Syria's leader has nothing to lose and
everything to gain by agreeing to the
American proposal.

THE JEWISH NEWS

Comedian

HIRSH GOODMAN

an in

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■••■•III

22

FRIDAY, AUGUST 2, 1991

4393 ORCHARD LAKE RD., N. OF LONE PINE
IN CROSSWINDS

855-0480

he reasons for Syrian
President Hafez al-
Assad's change of
policy toward Israel are not
so different from those that
brought Egypt's Anwar
Sadat to Jerusalem in 1977:
He has finally come to the
conclusion that he cannot
deal with Israel by military
means. Not for the present,
anyway.
His motives are not merely
tactical, as some in Israel
have claimed, though there
are undeniable short-term
benefits to be gained by
Syria for agreeing to talk.
Nor has Mr. al-Assad chang-
ed his basic ideological posi-
tion toward the Jewish state.
His motives are strategic
and long-term, and are in-
dicative of his ability to
understand and manipulate
current political realities.
He realized that he has
nothing to lose and every-
thing to gain by saying yes
to Secretary Baker and, as
always, his timing and
judgment have been impec-
cable.
Syria basically had no op-
tion but to agree to Mr.
Baker's proposal. Mr. al-
Assad has lost the sponsor-
ship of the Soviet Union and
has no real ally to support
his quest for strategic parity
with Israel or finance his
need for modern weapons.
The Gulf war, Iraq's defeat
and Jordanian diplomatic
and military weakness have
ended any dream of an east-
ern front against Israel. Mr.
al-Assad knows that Syria,
no matter how well-armed,
cannot take Israel on alone
and that other than a few
radical Palestinian and
Muslim fundamentalist ter-
rorist groups, he would have
no partners in a military
struggle against Israel now
or in the forseeable future.
Even Libya cannot be
counted on, and Iran, a
potential ally, is currently
dedicated to internal
reconstruction and shoring
up its relations with the
West and Japan.
Mr. al-Assad does not want
to go down in the history
books as the man who lost
the Golan Heights. He has
no current military option;

Mr. Goodman is editor in chief
of the Jerusalem Report.

Hafez al-Assad:
Seeking power?

hence the diplomatic com-
pliance. Whether he believes
he can return the Golan to
Syria by means of negotia-
tion is not relevant at this
point. What counts is that he
has no alternative, time is
running out (though only 64
he is reported to be in poor
health) and, in the ultimate
analysis, whatever the out-
come of the talks, he can use
the coming months to con-
solidate Syria's position, not
weaken it.
Mr. al-Assad needs Ameri-
can-European tacit support
to entrench his hold over
Lebanon. He wants to ce-
ment his relationship with
Egypt, now the indisputable
leader of the Arab world.
And he wants Gulf and
Saudi money again entering
Syrian coffers, though the
economic situation in Syria
is far from disastrous, and
his cash-flow problems have
been alleviated somewhat by
the production and export of
the oil recently discovered in
the eastern part of the coun-
try.
Although there is no
knowing what Syrian nego-
tiating tactics will be, Mr. al-
Assad will probably be for-
thcoming on issues pertain-
ing to regional arms control,
with the knowledge that any
freeze on new systems in the
area will be to Syria's ad-.
vantage and Israel's detri-
ment. Syria does not have
the resources at this time to
finance a major arms-buying
spree. The Soviets no longer
have the means or desire to
forward credits for doing so
and those nations prepared
to supply Syria's needs —
China, North Korea and
others — have no strategic
interest in selling Mr. al-