BACKGROUND
Moment Of Truth
before President Bush leaves
for his summit with Mikhail
Gorbachev in Moscow next
weekend.
But getting to the peace
table is, after all, the easy
part. Mr. Shamir, said the
source, was aware that "the
real problems will only
begin when the substantive
negotiations start in face-to-
face talks.
"Now that he has
exhausted the possibility of
further procedural delays,
he will focus on how to resist
the demands to relinquish
land."
The source, who was at
pains to stress the vast
chasm that separated
agreement on procedure and
agreement on substance,
said the only real procedural
point still outstanding was
the question of the Palestin-
ian representation at the
talks. (see box)
Still, Israelis, skeptical as
ever and as trusting of
Syrian President Hafez el-
Assad as of a fox, were
stirred by the drama of the
possibility of direct negotia-
tions between the Arab
states and Israel to resolve
their decades-long conflict.
Officials noted that Mr.
Shamir was in a relatively
stable position to take polit-
ical chances. The Knesset is
recessed until the end of
summer so the government
cannot be brought down by
right-wing coalition part-
ners who oppose the Ameri-
can plan. And even if the
right-wing partners leave,
Mr. Shamir can either call
for early elections, which
would probably strengthen
his hand, or he could bring
the Labor party into his
government.
Labor leader Shimon Peres
has pledged to keep any
government in power that is
engaged in the peace pro-
cess.
The dramatic events which
unfolded in Jerusalem this
week followed - the departure
of Secretary of State James
Baker, who ended his* fifth
round of shuttle diplomacy
with a ringing appeal to
Israel to seize the "moment
of historic opportunity" for
peace with its Arab
neighbors.
Following an 18-hour visit,
which could set the
parameters of future rela-
tions between Washington
and Jerusalem, Mr. Baker
challenged Israel to break
out of its web of procedural
objections and join the
U.S.-sponsored peace pro-
cess.
Washington's proposal en-
visages a largely ceremonial
opening conference, spon-
sored jointly by the United
States and the Soviet Union
with a passive UN presence,
which would lead to direct,
bilateral negotiations bet-
ween Israel and its Arab
neighbors.
It does not stipulate the
participation of the
Palestine Liberation Organ-
ization in the talks and is
understood to be vague of
the question of precisely who
will represent the Palestin-
ians in a joint negotiating
delegation with Jordan.
The proposal has won the
backing of all the main Arab
protagonists.
Winding up almost four
hours of talks with Israel's
leaders in Jerusalem ---
following stops in Syria,
Saudi Arabia, Egypt and
Jordan — Mr. Baker spelled
out the challenge to the Jew-
ish state. He said that Israel
had justifiably sought direct
negotiations with its Arab
neighbors for the past 43
years.
"Direct negotiations are
the only way to solve prob-
lems and the only way to
secure peace," he said. "Now
there is a real opportunity to
get to those face-to-face
apparently avoided the
contentious issue of Pa-
lestinian representation,
which caused his peace
efforts to founder last
year, but there are indica-
tions that he will not
allow their demands to
obstruct the progress of
his current peace plan.
In another twist, the
gathering pace of the
peace process and the Pa-
lestinian meetings with
Mr. Baker have exposed
rifts within the Palestin-
ian camp.
This week, the group,
led by Faisal Husseini,
which met with Mr.
Baker, came under fire
from two radical ex-
tremist movements which
are normally in sharp
ideological conflict.
In a rare joint state-
ment, the Islamic funda-
mentalist Hamas move-
ment and the Marxist-
based Popular Front for
the Liberation of
Palestine condemned the
meeting, asserting that
Mr. Husseini and his col-
leagues did not represent
the Palestinians.
The Palestinians may
be unhappy at the way
the peace process is evolv-
ing, but they have been
seriously weakened by
their posture during the
Gulf war and an unforgiv-
ing Mr. Baker, aware of
their vulnerability and
the erosion in their
bargaining position, may
be prepared to play "hard
ball."
There are indications,
said a high-level Israeli
source, that Mr. Baker
will offer the Palestinians
a place at the negotiating
table on terms which are
acceptable to Israel.
If they still prove
obstructive to the pro-
gress of his plan, he may
choose to leave them out
of the process altogether
for the time being while
he concentrates on laun-
ching bilateral negotia-
tions between the states
of the region. ❑
Setback For The PLO
As a result of its support
for Iraq's Saddam Hus-
sein in the Gulf war, the
Palestine Liberation
Organization lost the fi-
nancial support of its Gulf
benefactors, the political
support of its champions,
notably Egypt, and the
diplomatic support of
most of the rest of the
world.
Moreover, following
Syria's "Treaty of
Brotherhood" with
Beirut, the PLO fighters
in Lebanon have been
effectively neutered and
are now under the control
of the Syrian Army.
As Middle East realities
prepare to undergo a sea
change, the Palestinians
may be about to lose the
most precious prize of all
— an independent state,
for which they have wag-
ed a bloody campaign for
more than 25 years.
Palestinians, though
not the PLO, will be in-
vited to the proposed
peace conference, not as a
separate delegation but as
an appendage of the Jor-
danian negotiating team.
And their choice of
representatives is likely
to be severely cir-
cumscribed by Israeli
Prime Minister Yitzhak
Shamir.
He insists that he will
not negotiate with PLO
officials, with Palestin-
ians who have previously
been deported from the
occupied territories or
with Palestinian
residents of east
Jerusalem.
Unlike the West Bank
and Gaza Strip, which
Israel regards as
"disputed territories,"
east Jerusalem was for-
mally annexed by Israel
after the 1967 Six Day
War and Mr. Shamir
asserts that any Palestin-
ian negotiators from east
Jerusalem would under-
mine its sovereignty over
"Israel's eternal, un-
divided capital."
So far, Mr. Baker has
negotiations. Israel now has
Arab partners willing to
engage in direct negotia-
tions. This reflects positive
changes in the Arab world."
Mr. Baker said his diplo-
matic efforts had been
designed to achieve three .
goals: "To produce direct
negotiations; to produce a
basic approach which Israel
has always said is acceptable
to it; to produce a climate
that helps these negotiations
succeed. In our view, we've
done all three."
He stated emphatically
that direct, bilateral
negotiations would follow
the opening conference and
that the parties. would be
free to agree among them-
selves whether they wanted
other parties to be present at
their negotiations.
In an attempt to sweeten
the pill and build a climate
appropriate to peace-
making, Mr. Baker also won
agreement among a range of
Arab states, including Saudi
Arabia, to scrap the Arab
economic boycott in
exchange for an Israeli
commitment to halt set-
tlement activities.
Israel rejected the ap-
pearance of linkage between
the two issues, insisting that
the boycott, which costs
Israel some $100 million a
year in lost trade and 10 per-
cent a year in lost foreign
investment, is a form of war-
fare, while the settlements
are a subject for discussion
at the negotiating table.
In addition to the promise
of direct talks, the Baker
proposals also included an
agreement that the
Palestine Liberation Organ-
ization would not attend a
peace conference and that
the Palestinians would be
THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS
35
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