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Tel Aviv (JTA) — Iraq has
no nuclear capability at the
moment but has the poten-
tial to acquire it, according
to an exhaustive analysis
published in the Israeli daily
newspaper Ma'ariv.
Moreover, despite U.N.
supervision, the Iraqis con-
cealed more missiles than
they destroyed, the paper
said. And they also conceal-
ed large quantities of
chemical materials and
chemical warheads.
Therefore, Iraq remains a
potential military threat to
Israel, though much less so
than before the Persian Gulf
war started in January,
Ma'ariv concluded.
The question that most in-
terests strategists is the ex-
tent of Iraq's nuclear
capability.
According to Ma'ariv, Iraq
possesses the necessary raw
materials to manufacture
fission bombs. It also has the
required knowledge and,
beyond that, the fierce de-
termination of Saddam Hus-
sein and his regime to con-
tinue its nuclear effort,
whatever the cost may be,
the paper said.
According to U.N. reports,
Iraq has acquired large
amounts of raw uranium
from Nigeria, Portugal and
Brazil, and uranium has
been mined in northern Iraq.
There is sufficient ura-
nium for the Iraqis to pro-
duce 20 to 40 atomic bombs
in 10 years, if they husband
their resources and can work
without outside surveil-
lance.
But it is not known for cer-
tain whether the Iraqis have
achieved the technological
level necessary to create
chain reactions in a critical
mass of fissionable material,
Ma'ariv said.
Iraq does not need the ex-
pertise of foreign scientists.
But it does need the various
components to produce an
atomic bomb.
The questions then are
whether Iraq's nuclear ac-
tivity can be detected by spy
satellite and whether the
process can be stopped by
aerial bombardment.
The answers to both are
yes, at least in theory, Ma'ariv
said.
Above-ground activity can
be detected, especially if it
involves radioactive mate-
rial. However, well-
camouflaged underground
bunkers would be difficult to
detect with satellites, espe-
cially if they are scattered
throughout Iraq's extensive
territory and if some sites
are decoys.
Their destruction is theo-
retically possible if the
United States has the infor-
mation to pinpoint the sites
where nuclear activity is be-
ing conducted and has the
bombs capable of
penetrating very deep, well-
fortified bunkers, Ma'ariv
said. -
The paper cited reports
that Iraq has concealed as
many as 400 Scud missiles
and launchers, which can be
secretly brought to western
Iraq in striking distance of
Israel.
The Iraqis also have the
Soviet-made Tupelov-16
bombers, which can take off
from bases deep inside Iraq.
They were not used in the
Gulf war because of the ab-
solute air superiority en-
joyed by the United States
and its allies, Ma'ariv said.
Last week, French Presi-
dent Francois Mitterrand
said a military attack on
Iraqi installations would be
justified if Iraq continued to
try to develop nuclear
weapons.
"The decision to bomb Ira-
qi nuclear sites would have
to be taken with my con-
sent," and "we are ready to
do it, if needed," Mr. Mitter-
rand said.
President Bush has also
spoken of the possibility of
military action against Iraq
if it continues to evade
international inspection of
its nuclear facilities.
PLO Offices
Forced To Close
Copenhagen (JTA) —
Economic pressures are forc-
ing the Palestine Liberation
Organization to shut down
its information offices in
Copenhagen and Oslo, the
Danish and Norwegian capi-
tals.
The PLO representative in
Denmark, Abdul Rahman
Allawi, informed the Danish
Foreign Ministry of the
closures.
Mr. Allawi cited the PLO's
deteriorating economic
situation since the Persian
Gulf war. The Palestinians
who worked in Kuwait are
without jobs and cannot pay
their regular tithe to the
PLO.
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf
emirates also cut off support
to the PLO when it sided
with Saddam Hussein.