BACKGROUND
Lebanon
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36
FRIDAY, JULY 12, 1991
region in 1972 in search of a
peace formula.
Mr. Brunner, who met
Israel's leaders before
traveling on to Jordan, said
he had no intention of
mediating or giving advice:
"I have not come to interfere
in the current peace pro-
cess."
But the Israelis, like other
players in the Arab-Israeli
conflict, are aware that the
peace process started by U.S.
Secretary of State James
Baker shortly after the Gulf
war is firmly mired in the
quicksand of Middle East
sophistry.
They are also aware that
Washington may be ready to
throw its weight behind a
UN-sponsored peace in-
itiative, which could lead
directly to an international
peace conference. ❑
Can The PLO Survive
Yet Another Reversal?
Israel is not alone in facing
an uncertain future as the
Lebanese Army moves to re-
establish its authority after
16 years of civil war. •
The destruction of PLO
bases in South Lebanon by
vengeful Lebanese soldiers
represents yet another
humiliation for Yassir
Arafat.
It is also another major
military setback for the PLO
fighters. They have been
reduced to instruments of
Syrian President Hafez al-
Assad, who has an abiding
antipathy for the PLO
chairman and who has
spawned and supported a
dozen movements to
challenge Mr. Arafat's
leadership.
The blow that may have
finally ended any credible
PLO military threat to
Israel's northern border has
crowned a year of seismic
reversals for the PLO on the
political, diplomatic and
military fronts.
The first in a series of
disastrous miscalculations
came last June when Mr.
Arafat refused to condemn
an abortive seaborne attack
on the Israeli coast, a deci-
sion that cost the PLO its of-
ficial dialogue with Wash-
ington and much of Western
Europe.
A few months later, Mr.
Arafat appeared to shoot
himself in the other foot
when he publicly endorsed
Iraqi President Saddam
Hussein shortly after the
start of the Gulf crisis.
That move. cost the PLO
valued political support of
Egypt and the financial
backing of the Gulf states,
notably Saudi Arabia and
Kuwait, which had previous-
ly supplied a major share of
the PLO's operating budget.
The latest setback, which
will remove Palestinian
fighters from proximity with
the Israeli frontier — unless
they function under Syrian
auspices — seems certain to
plunge the PLO into even
greater internal disarray.
Some Arab observers are
now seriously questioning
whether there is any future
for the PLO, an organization
which has nothing tangible
to show for its 25-year fight
for a Palestinian state.
While the PLO now spends
much of its time in internal
feuding and conflict with
once-friendly Arab govern-
ments, Bassam Abu Sharif,
a close political aide to
Arafat and architect of his
highly successful "peace
offensive," was putting a
brave face on the last devel-
opments in Lebanon.
"This is not a defeat," he
said this week. "We are not
in conflict with the Lebanese
Even Arab
observers are
wondering out loud
about the PLO's
future.
Army. What has been worry-
ing us is the need to protect
our people in the camps from
Israeli raids.
"Now we've reached an
agreement (with the
Lebanese) on how to protect
the Palestinian people in the
camps."
Nevertheless, Mr. Arafat's
predicament appears to be
desperate. With the uprising
in the Israeli-occupied ter-
ritories running out of
steam, he has navigated his
movement into a political
and financial dead-end.
Moreover, his military op-
tion now appears to have
fallen, like Lebanon itself,
under the control of the
Syrian leader, his' most
dangerous foe in the Arab
world.
But as Israel and Syria jos-
tle for advantage in Lebanon
and Beirut comes to terms
with the mixed blessing of
Syrian domination, Middle
East observers caution
against discounting Mr.
Arafat.