BACKGROUND

The Lebanese
Challenge

The PLO may be routed,
but what about Syria?

HELEN DAVIS

Foreign Correspondent

erusalem is on another
collision course with
Washington now that
Israeli Foreign Minister
David Levy has ruled out
any withdrawal from
Israel's self-proclaimed
security zone until "all
hostile foreign forces" have
left Lebanon.
The statement followed
the defeat last week of
Palestine Liberation Organ-
ization fighters by the
Syrian-backed Lebanese
Army, a task Israel failed to
accomplish on its own for
more than 20 years.
Most of the 6,000 Palestin-
ian fighters were routed
from their military bases
and are now bottled up in
the camps of Ein el-Hilwe
and Mieh-Mieh, which are
"home" to about 80,000 of
Lebanon's 350,000 Palestin-
ian refugees.
The Lebanese government
has served notice that its
forces will completely dis-
arm the PLO fighters within
20 days and that they will be
shipped off to the Syrian-
controlled Baka'a Valley of
East Lebanon.
In exchange, Lebanese of-
ficials have made vague
promises of talks over the
Palestinians' status and
rights.
Israel invaded Lebanon
twice over the past 15 years
and has mounted hundreds
of cross-border raids in an
attempt to defeat the PLO
and remove the threat to its
northern border.
Following its 1982 inva-
sion, which resulted in the
expulsion of PLO leaders
from their Beirut head-
quarters, Israel established
a security zone which runs
along the entire length of
the Israel-Lebanon frontier.
The area is patrolled by
Israeli troops and a locally
raised militia, the South
Lebanese Army, which is
trained, armed and financed
by Israel. Since creation of

j

the buffer zone in 1985,
there have been no civilian
casualties on Israel's nor-
thern border.
But Israel has paid a high
diplomatic price for its con-
trol of the area, evoking per-
sistent demands that the
territory be handed over to
Unifil, a multinational
_United Nations peace-
keeping force in the area.
Now that Lebanon controls
the area around the port city
of Sidon and the threat from
the Palestinian fighters has
been contained in the refu-
gee camps wedged between
the Lebanese and Israeli
forces, renewed demands for
Israel's evacuation,
spearheaded by Lebanese
President Elias Hrawi, have
already intensified.
A new ingredient in this
demand, however, is the not
insignificant expectation
that Washington will add its
voice to the international
chorus. Late last week, the
Israeli Army northern com-
mander, Major General Yit-
zhak Mordechai, and the
Israeli policy coordinator in
Lebanon, Uri Lubrani,
visited the predominantly
Christian town of Jezzine.
Overlooking the Palestin-
ian camps and just a few
miles south of Sidon, where
about 10,000 Lebanese
troops are now deployed,
Jezzine is at the outer limit
of Israel's security zone,
about 25 miles north of the
Israeli frontier.
Mr. Lubrani later staked
out the Israeli position when
he declared it did not intend
"to stay in Lebanon indefi-
nitely."
But, he added, Israel
would not withdraw until
receiving guarantees that
the area would no longer be
used as a springboard for
terrorist attacks on its nor-
thern border. "Such guar-
antees," he said, "do not yet
exist."
This message was
underscored by Defense
Minister Moshe Arens, who
said Israel would not allow
Lebanese troops to take con-

Artwork frorn Newsday by Bernie Cootner. Copyright. 1991, Newsday. Distributed by Los Angeles

trol of Jezzine. Speaking on
Israel Army Radio, he said
Israel will not consent to
handing over the strate-
gically important town. "We
paid a heavy price to secure
peace for the residents of
northern Israel," he said.
Israeli Chief of Staff Ehud
Barak further upped the
ante when he told members
of Israel's parliamentary
Foreign Affairs and Defense
Committee that surveillance
flights would continue to en-
sure Syria does not deploy
men or material in South
Lebanon.
The latest developments
present a serious test of
resolve for the Bush Ad-
ministration, which re-
portedly promised Beirut
that Israel and its proxies

Israel is beginning
to take the
Lebanese
government
seriously.

would withdraw from Jez-
zine if Lebanon succeeded in
extending its authority to
Sidon.
Syrian President Hafez al-
Assad, who has emerged as
clear winner in the pro-
tracted cat-and-mouse game
for control of Lebanon, will
be watching closely to see
whether Washington is will-
ing and able to deliver on
that promise.
For Israel, the stakes are
high. As a senior official in
Jerusalem explained this
week:
If Israel bows to interna-
tional pressure and pulls out
of Lebanon, it will risk leav-
ing its civilian border towns
and settlements exposed to
terrorist attacks. If it stays
put, the border will remain
secure but tensions with
Washington will be greatly

magnified.
Now there is another
dimension to the situation,
one which Mr. Levy alluded
when he insisted that it was
up to Israel to ensure its own
security.
The Lebanese
"pacification" program is
being underpinned by Syria,
which has 40,000 troops in
Lebanon and now effectively
controls the country. If
Israel withdraws, Lebanon
will be left entirely under
Syrian tutelage.
While Palestinian incur-
sions could terrorize the
civilian population and
disrupt life near Israel's nor-
thern border, such attacks
would not pose a military
threat to Israel's security.
But an Israeli withdrawal
without a reciprocal Syrian
move would leave Israel at a
significant strategic disad-
vantage. Such unilateral ac-
tion would upset the strate-
gic balance in the region
carved out by Israel and
Syria
If Israel were to withdraw
from Lebanon, Syria would
be left facing the Jewish
state across a massive front.
Israelis are apparently be-
ing prepared for the possibil-
ity of conflict. Israel Radio
this week quoted military
sources as warning that
"terrorist attacks are still
being planned against the
northern border . . . The
Israeli Army will stop this
activity," the radio report
said, "even if it is conducted
under the auspices of the
Lebanese Army."
The Israelis listeners no
doubt understood that with
Lebanese Army operations
now being underwritten by
the Syrians, any conflict
with Lebanese forces carries
the real risk of a full-scale
conflict with Syria.
Such a conflict is not
necessarily imminent —

TIT.

Syndicate.

unless Israel chooses to seize
the political and military in-
itiative — but it is unlikely
to be delayed much beyond
September 20, when the
Lebanese government has
pledged to enter Israel's
stronghold of Jezzine.

In the past, Israeli officials
have been somewhat scorn-
ful of Beirut's timetable for
extending its authority over
areas that are still not under
Lebanese government or
"Syrian-assisted" control.
But the Lebanese govern-
ment has made good on its
promises to pacify Beirut,
then the Christian north,
the Druse-controlled Shouf
Mountains in central Leb-
anon and now the Palestin-
ian power base around
Sidon. Israelis are finally
taking seriously Lebanon's
determination to enter Jez-
zine.
A senior Israeli political
source, who said Jerusalem
" is watching the situation
very closely," noted that
Lebanon signed a
U.S.-brokered non-
belligerency treaty with
Israel on May 17, 1983,
which articulates the for-
_ mula that all foreign forces
should leave Lebanon.
The treaty was subse-
quently abrogated by Beirut
under pressure from Syria
on March 5, 1984, but accor-
ding to the Israeli official,
the eight-year-old document
could again form the basis
for discussions about an
Israeli withdrawal.
"This can once again
become relevant," he said,
"Right now, though, it is not
the point."
Yet another ominous note
for Israel was struck last
week when a special United
Nations envoy, Eduard
Brunner, re-activated a dip-
lomatic effort dormant since
Gunnar Jarring visited the

THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS

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