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What Will Influence
Israel's Soviet Vote?

CARL ALPERT

Special to The Jewish News

I

f the next national elec-
tions in Israel take place
according to schedule in
November 1992, some hun-
dreds of thousands of new
Soviet immigrants will have
joined the voters' rosters.
Their numbers could account
for as many as fifteen Knesset
members, thus changing the
whole political map here.
Whom will the newcomers
vote for?
The pollsters are having a
field day, as well as the
statisticians, the sociologists,
the psychologists and even
the astrologers. The polls are
not uniform in their findings,
but they do indicate a definite
trend. Thus, a straw ballot
conducted among the Soviet
immigrants by the Tazpit
Research Institute establish-
ed that if a Russian party
were to be created, more than
half of those questioned
reported they would vote for
it. If an immigrant party is
not set up, 46 percent of the
newcomers will support the
bloc of right wing parties and
21 percent the parties of the
left.
Other surveys put it dif-
ferently. No more than 5 per-
cent of the new voters would
support a socialist oriented
party, and this may explain
why there is a move in labor
to drop the red flag and May
Day and the International an-
them, or perhaps even change
the name of the party.
Even the domestic Arab
press is curious. A survey con-
ducted among Russian im-
migrants by the east
Jerusalem weekly, Al-
Bayader A-Siyasi, reported 52
percent for Likud, 30 percent
for the smaller parties to the
right of Likud and 15 percent
for Labor.
Somewhat different results
are shown in a survey con-
ducted by Dr. Michal Shamir
of Tel Aviv University. She
found that the voters' inclina-
tions were based more on
economic issues than on na-
tional policy toward the Arabs
and the occupied territories.
Most showed utter un-
familiarity with Israel's
political personalities, and
some even identified Mr.
Shamir as a Labor leader. Of
those who would vote for a
Russian party, 26 percent
leaned to a party backing

Carl Alpert writes from
Haifa.

Likud as against 13 percent
to Labor.
Natan Sharansky, who is
most often mentioned as a
potential leader of a new par-
ty, has repeatedly disavowed
all political ambitions, but
his references to "pressure
from the street" would ap-
pear to indicate that he could
be made amenable. Yet many
of the Soviet Jews report they
have never heard of him.
In the meantime, the first
candidate has thrown his hat
into the ring, and it is ex-
pected that others will follow.
Yosef Harol, a 62-year-old
veteran of Stalinist persecu-
tion, arrived in Israel in
1969, and has since establish-
ed himself here. He has an-
nounced the establishment of

Most showed utter
unfamiliarity with
Israel's political
personalities, and
some even
identified Mr.
Shamir as a Labor
leader.

a new party based on
Zionism, aliyah and
democracy; hence the party
name, pronounced in Hebrew
Zaad. It leans right in na-
tional Arab policies, and left
on social and religious mat-
ters. Harol is strong,
energetic and ambitious, and
has surrounded himself with
a staff of devoted volunteers.
He is completely unknown
outside Soviet circles.
Another potential new par-
ty leader is Eduard Kuznet-
sov, who ran for the Knesset
in 1981 with a party formed
just on the eve of the elec-
tions. At the time, it got 7,000
votes, then equivalent to half
a Knesset member, he observ-
ed. 'Ibday, as editor of Vremya,
the most widely circulated of
all Russian papers in the
country, he is in a position of
influence.
Despite opposition in many
circles to a party based on the
ethnic or previous national
origins of the voters, it is
recalled that the refugees of
the 1930s formed their own
political group, the Organiza-
tion of Immigrants from Cen-
tral Europe, which affiliated
with the General Zionists.

The big parties are un-
doubtedly watching
developments closely and
perhaps have taken their own
polls, results of which they

