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T
endencies prevailed
throughout this ge-
neration, and in the
previous one as well, dealing
with demographic Jewish
studies as "happy years
ahead." Confidence is ex-
pressed about continuity in
our identifications, even in
such challenging matters as
mixed marriages.
There were concerns that
ensued in many discussions
and evidence of it is in my
Without Malice (published in
1978), which contained a
chapter entitled "U.S. Jewry
in 2053: A Vision for the
Future." It dealt with a
query addressed to me by the
University of Iowa and was
explained as follows:
Speculations about the
future, inspired by the
American Revolution
Bicentennial, have
become part of the cur-
rent historic celebration.
What is the future of
American and world
Jewry?
This writer was asked
by the University of Iowa
School of Journalism, in
1953, as president of the
American Jewish Press
Association (then func-
tioning as the American
Association of English-
Jewish Newspapers) for
an augury to be placed in
a time capsule, sealed in
the university's then new
Communications Center
Building, to be opened in
100 years.
I had a long, positive reply
which will apparently be
made public in 2053. It is
now negated by the newest
studies which lead us into
realism with doubts accom-
panied by some agonies. The
current depressing facts are
analyzed in this release by
the Jewish Telegraphic
Agency:
Only two-thirds of
Americans who say their
ethnic background is
Jewish identify them-
selves religiously as Jews,
according to a national
survey on religious identi-
fication.
Fully 6 percent of those
who say their ethnic
origin is Jewish say they
are now Protestant. An-
other 5 percent call them-
selves Catholic, and 1
percent identify them-
selves as Christian
without specifying a de-
nomination.
The remaining 22 per-
cent of those identifying
themselves as ethnic Jews
say they now either have
no religion or link them-
selves to another, non-
Christian faith.
The 12 percent of ethnic
Jews in the poll who said
they are now Christian re-
ligiously is "startling,"
said Jack Wertheimer, as-
sociate professor of histo-
ry at the Jewish Theologi-
cal Seminary. "It's not
evident that people in the
past would admit to that."
He suggested the large
figure may in part be ex-
plained by the rising rate
of intermarriage, since
"some Jews identify with
the religion of their non-
Jewish spouses."
The survey, commis-
sioned by the Graduate
It is evident that
the optimism of
three decades ago
has not prevailed.
School of the City Univer-
sity of New York, polled
113,000 American
households in the con-
tinental United States
over a 13-month period
ending last April.
It found that Jews com-
prise 1.8 percent of the
American adult popula-
tion. Extrapolating this to
the total population, in-
cluding children, there
would now be 4.3 million
Jews in the United States,
according to Bary
Kosmin, director of the
study.
That is substantially
fewer that the 5.5 million
American Jews estimated
by the Council of Jewish
Federations in its 1990
National Jewish Popula-
tion Survey, which
Kosmin also conducted.
The difference is that
the CJF figure included
Jews identifying them-
selves as secular, whereas
the CUNY research in-
cluded only those who
identify themselves as
Jews religiously.
There is much in this to
compel serious planning for
an identified Jewry. For a
number of years, we have
been fooled into believing
there were six million Jews
in this country. Nov we
learn that we are 4.3 mill-
ion. We had better get down
to brass tacks and learn that