PERSIAN GULF CRISIS

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WASHINGTON ANALYSIS

The U.Selsrael Thaw:
How Long Will It Last?

The short-term benefits suggest increased
economic aid from Washington. But don't
expect miracles.

JAMES D. BESSER

Washington Correspondent

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one way to guage the
relationship between
Washington and
Jerusalem is The
Phone Test.
President Bush, who be-
lieves in personal diplomacy
with foreign leaders, called
Israeli Prime Minister Yit-
zhak Shamir on the tele-
phone more this week than
he had in the first two years
of his presidency.
Clearly, the once hostile
relationship between the
two leaders has warmed
since the war began and
Israel withstood strong
internal pressure to
retaliate for the initial Iraqi
missile attacks on Tel Aviv
last weekend.
How long the improved re-
lations will last is anyone's
guess now, and there is dis-
agreement among American
political leaders and Jewish
officials.
There is a widespread
belief in the pro-Israel com-
munity here that even this
week's more devastating
Scud attacks — and the
Israeli retaliation that
seems more and more likely
— will not be enough to scut-
tle the new cooperation.
"Israel has built up
tremendous goodwill," said
Malcolm Hoenlein, exec-
utive director of the Con-
ference of Presidents of
Major American Jewish
Organizations. "Hopefully
the administration will re-
member this when it's all
over?'
Less optimistic, Morris
Amitay, the dean of Jewish
lobbyists here, described the
U.S-Israel thaw as "strictly
a short-run improvement."
He pointed out that addi-
tional weapons for Israel

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FRIDAY, JANUARY 25, 1991

voted by Congress late last
year were still in the
pipeline. And he cautioned
that the deep-seated prob-
lems between Washington
and Jerusalem include
major differences over the
Arab peace process.
"It's absolutely unrealistic
to think this has solved the
basic problems," he said,
noting that Washington is

But Israel's decision to
forgo a military response to
the first attacks produced a
striking surge of warmth in
the administration, in Con-
gress and among the Ameri-
can people.
Millions of American tele-
vision viewers watching
Israelis don gas masks and
endure the heavy bombing of
civilian residences in Tel
Aviv may have done more to
make Israel's case than all of
Jerusalem's past public rela-
tions efforts. "Many who
didn't understand Israel's
security problems have a
new understanding," said
Mr. Hoenlein.
"Israel has gained
tremendously in Congress
since the first attacks," said
Rep. Ben Cardin, a
Baltimore Democrat. "My
colleagues understand that
Israel has already showed
restraint beyond the call of
duty; what they do now
should not damage the
goodwill they've gained.
There's a good understan-

Officially, the Patriot
deployment was the result of
a new understanding of
Israel's security needs in the
face of dozens of Iraqi Scud
missile launchers.
Unofficially, the decision
came after some tough
bargaining between the two
governments.
At the beginning of the
week there was a deluge of
rumors about what the ad-
ministration may have
offered in return for the
dramatic concession by the
Israelis. But experts in
Israel and Washington sug-
gest that there may not have
been any quid pro quo deals,
after all. Instead, as was ap-
parent, the U.S. supplied
Israel with the Patriots, the
aircraft carrier and a com-
mitment to "continue to
pound the hell out of
Saddam," in the words of
one pro-Israel activist.
But pro-Israel groups an-
ticipate other benefits — in-
cluding a possible effort to
provide Israel with addi-

All smiles for now: Lawrence Eagleburger, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State, confers with Prime
Minister Yitzhak Shamir in Jerusalem. The two men discussed coordinating efforts between their
two countries.

still courting Syria and Jor-
dan and continues to put the
onus on the delayed Pales-
tinian talks on Israel.
When the war began,
U.S.-Israeli relations were
cool — the result of many
months of strain over the
lack of progress on the Pa-
lestinian issue, and of
American concerns about
possible Israeli actions in
the unfolding Gulf confron-
tation. The chill continued
even after Israel promised
not to pre-empt Iraqi missile
and chemical arsenals.

ding here that they can't be
expected to show restraint
indefinitely."
In the short term, this
sudden thaw may prove a
boon to Israeli defense pro-
curement specialists, and it
may provide some immedi-
ate relief from American
pressure for Israeli conces-
sions on the peace process.
The most visible result
was the deployment of the
Patriot missiles with Ameri-
can crews, marking the first
time U.S. troops have been
stationed on Israeli soil.

tional military and economic
aid during the upcoming
congressional session.
Jerusalem this week was re-
questing an additional $13
billion from Washington —
$3 billion in compensation
for war damages and $10
billion for the resettlement
of Soviet Jews.
After dragging its feet for
many months on a number
of aid programs for Israel,
the administration may now
be open to an emergency in-
crease.
At the very least, there is a

widespread expectation that
Israel's new status may free
up some $700 million in
military hth-dware, au-
thorized by Congress but
held up by the administra-
tion since November.
Israel's supporters here
hope for the same result for
the $400 million in housing
loan guarantees to help
Israel resettle Soviet Jews.
The loan guarantee package
was passed by Congress in
June — but held up repeat-
edly as the administration
continued to pressure the
Shamir government.
Israel's friends here hope
the new mood of cooperation
will remove the final.
obstacles to the loans — and
pave the • way for a new
package of loan guarantees,
expected to be introduced
sometime in the next few
months.
Israeli representatives
here have a long shopping
list of weapons that their
army would like to add to its
arsenal in the next year.
Congress, with the surge
in goodwill based on Israel's
early restraint, will prob-
ably look favorably on such
requests, according to Rep.
Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.)
In the longer term, pro-
Israel activists hope that the
personal animosities bet-
ween President Bush and
Prime Minister Shamir that
have cast a pall over
U.S.-Israel relations will
ease.
But other important
voices caution against ex-
cessive optimism. The Per-
sian Gulf war is still too
fresh, with too many possi-
ble scenarios for Israel's in-
volvement — a point that
was painfully made on
Tuesday, when additional
missiles evaded the Patriots
and slammed into Tel Aviv.
"In general there has been
too much optimism about
the duration of the war, and
about new relationships. in
the region," said Shoshana
Cardin, chair of the Con-
ference of Presidents of
Major American Jewish
Organizations. "I think we
have. to be very cautious."
Others were openly skep-
tical.
"This cooperation we're
seeing has been imposed on
the administration because
they have no choice if they
want to see Israel stay on the
sidelines," said Stuart
Eizenstat, former domestic
policy adviser to President
Jimmy Carter and a leading
pro-Israel activist. ❑

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