BUSINESS BULL'S EYE' Over the past two decades, David Littman's forecasts have made him Detroit's premier economist. A dart board in his Detroit office is inspirational for David Littmann. 44 FRIDAY, JANUARY 18, 1991 KIMBERLY LIFTON Staff Writer D avid Littmann doesn't want to be famous. The senior economist for Manufacturers National Bank of Detroit just wants to be right. Yet an accurate track record on predicting the outlook for the Michigan economy over the past two decades has made Mr. Litt- mann Detroit's premier economist. "In the process of being right, he has become famous," says Justin Moran, an Ann Arbor-based bank- ing consultant and a spokesman for the Michigan Banker's Association. "He does the best job of anybody at keeping track of Mich- igan's economic conditions. He offers a better view than the Michigan Department of Commerce." Mr. Littmann, born in Il- linois, was always fascinated by statistics. At age 6, he memorized the names of the planets. When he learned to write, he kept a diary. Today he spends his time following trends and study- ing historical annotations of Michigan's business ac- tivities. He also looks at how the state's economy was af- fected by Hurricane Agnes in 1972, Chrysler-GM work stoppages in 1976, reces- sions of 1958, 1960-61, 1970, 1980-82 and the current recession, the stock market plunge of 1987, tax reforms of 1986-87 and the August invasion of Kuwait by Iraq. Mr. Littmann uses such events for economic forecasting, a dismal science in which researchers gather mounds of information to make the best guesses about gross national product, real growth, inflation and inter- est rates. Forecasting is done with the understanding it will be wrong. "We are often wrong, but never in doubt," says Mr. Littmann, 49, first vice pres- ident for Manufacturers. "We are never good enough." Those who know Mr. Litt- mann say his ability to com- bine experience, common sense and an understanding of human nature with great masses of data make him one of the best at projecting business activity in the state. "When you want to know the most up-to-date interest rate forecast, the general consensus is you call David Littmann first," Mr. Moran says. "David is better than most." Mr. Littmann compares his job to a game of pool. The government, or the regulator, holds the stick to shoot the cue ball, which is surrounded by pool balls representing the economy. The economist closely wat- ches the government aim for the break. The cue ball will hit another ball that will go into the pocket or follow an- other direction on the table. The economy is affected by how the government shoots the cue ball. "How does the government get that ball into the pocket?" Mr. Littmann asks."It's pretty analogous. Either it goes into the pocket or off the table completely." Today, he says, the ball is bouncing around the table, completely off the mark. "In 1990 and 1991, the govern- ment scratched the cue ball. "Recession is a serious verdict on the state's econo- my," he says. "It is predi- cated on historical perspec- tive, empirical evidence and near-term economic pro- spects, given the current tax policies and legislative in- itiatives adopted in Wash- ington," he says. Praised by his colleagues, Mr. Littmann is often criticized by politicians, like former Gov. James Blan- chard, for his candid disap- proval of high taxes. "We hear about taxes and deficits, which are a smoke screen for the real problem,"