BACKGROUND
HELEN DAVIS
Foreign Correspondent
T
he beginning of
knowledge in attemp-
ting to divine the next
steps in the Gulf crisis is an
appreciation of the fact that
future developments are
almost entirely unpredic-
table. Military, political and
diplomatic scenarios are as
numerous — and as fanciful
— as the human imagina-
tion is capable of contriving.
Amid the constantly shif-
ting sands, however, there is
one rock of absolute certain-
ty: Israel's military strate-
gists and political analysts
have not been sitting on
their hands for the past two
months.
While its military
planners are hard at work
attempting to cover every
conceivable contingency
that could arise if the Gulf
crisis spills over into a
shooting war, its political
minds are fully engaged in
attempting to shape the
peace that will follow.
What sort of military and
political options are being
explored in Israel and how
might the Israelis respond to
the fresh dangers and oppor-
tunities that await them?
The answers to these ques-
tions are likely to be as in-
triguing as they are unex-
pected.
With the deck set to be
comprehensively reshuffled
in any major Middle East
upheaval, it is likely that
Israel will seize the moment
to settle old scores and,
equally important, to forge
new alliances that would
have been unthinkable only
a few weeks ago.
On the military front,
Israel remains extremely
vulnerable to two particular
developments, either one of
which Iraq's President
Saddam Hussein may pur-
sue if he concludes that he
has no chance of avoiding,
and surviving, an internal
challenge or a clash with the
combined Western-Arab
------
7 ,2,./
%01/4/1/
■ ••., 411,
%MAI
01990 NTERNATICNAL COPYFIGNT BY CARTOCNEWS 6NC, N.Y.C. USA
Strange
Bedfellows
Almost any alliance is possible now that
the power balance has shifted, and Israel
may even find itself linked with its current
arch-enemy, Syria.
troops assembled in the
Gulf.
Pushed to the wall, it is
possible — indeed, probable
—that he will make a des-
perate, last-minute attempt
to disrupt the coalition
ranged against him by turn-
ing on Israel and seeking to
convert the Gulf crisis into a
full-blooded Arab-Israeli
war. Indeed, he articulated
precisely such an intention
last week.
It is a move that he
calculates will serve to
neutralize the Western
forces, which are unlikely to
go to war to defend Israel,
and to compel at least some
of the hostile Arab armies to
rally to his side.
In these circumstances,
Saddam would be faced with
the option of either in-
itiating a direct missile at-
tack on Israel or of commit-
ting a provocative act, such
as the introduction of
substantial Iraqi armor and
forces into Jordan, a move he
knows will almost certainly
compel Jerusalem to re-
spond.
Israel is entirely un-
protected against incoming
missiles and is therefore
vulnerable to extensive
casualties and damage, par-
ticularly if the missiles are
equipped with chemical or
biological weapons and if
their targeting is reasonably
accurate.
Iraq's collection of Scud-
enhanced Tammuz-I and al-
Hussein missiles have the
ability to reach Israel, but
their relative inaccuracy
over such long distances
renders them unreliable for
pin-point surgical strikes
aimed at specific military
installations.
They are, therefore, likely
to be directed at larger
targets, such as Israel's
sprawling civilian popula-
tion centers on the Mediter-
ranean coast around Tel
Aviv.
Such strikes might be dev-
astating to Israel's morale,
but they are unlikely to seri-
ously impair its ability to
deliver a powerful military
response, perhaps even in-
volving the use of tactical
nuclear weapons.
While a direct Iraqi
military challenge poses a
serious threat, the really
difficult long-term problems
facing Israel are on the polit-
ical-diplomatic front.
These problems, exposed
even before the start of the
Gulf crisis, became evident
with the end of the Cold War
when Israel suddenly found
it had lost much of its stra-
tegic value to the United
States as an instrument for
checking and blocking
Soviet ambitions in the Mid-
dle East.
Indeed, far from con-
stituting a strategic asset,
Israel is now regarded in
some circles as a net liability
because of the antagonism it
evokes within the Arab
world and the knock-on
effect this has on its tradi-
tional superpower ally.
It is instructive that not
only has the United States
failed to seek Israeli
military assistance in the
current crisis, but it has ac-
tively sought to reduce
Israel's role to the point of
invisibility. Twice over the
past two months, President
Bush has been moved to
thank the Israeli govern-
ment for maintaining a "low
profile."
Nor is there any doubt in
Israeli minds that once the
current crisis is resolved,
Washington — supported by
Moscow —will seek to pay a
large part of its debt of grati-
tude to the Arab world in the
currency of Israeli territorial
concessions and a resolution
of the Palestinian problem.
Israel's concerns have
THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS
43