INSIDE WASHINGTON
JAMES D. BESSER
Washington Correspondent
F
our months ago, Wash-
ington was abuzz with
talk about cuts in for-
eign aid — and in particular,
aid to Israel, the leading
recipient of American
dollars.
Now, with Saddam Hus-
sein threatening the Persian
Gulf region and American
troops digging into the Saudi
deserts, Israeli officials
think the time might be
right to ask for an increase
in aid for the next budget
year.
But congressional sources
suggested that the Israelis
may be in for a tough fight. -
"Sympathy for Israel is
one thing," said a top aide to
Joseph Lieberman:
Too early to tell.
a Jewish congressman.
"There's no question that
many people up here are de-
veloping a new appreciation
for the problems that Israel
faces. But the foreign aid
question this year is almost
entirely budget driven; the
only real threat to aid to
Israel at the current levels
has come from people con-
cerned about the deficit."
Those sentiments were
echoed by Sen. Joseph
Lieberman (D-Conn.), one of
Israel's most articulate sup-
porters on Capitol Hill.
"It's too early to say what
will happen if they request
more aid," Sen. Lieberman
said. "But it's problematic
because of the budget, and
because of this sense that we
now have more varied inter-
ests in the region."
ADL Takes Poll Results
Straight To Israel
With the U.S.-Israeli rela-
tionship in a state of flux,
polls documenting changing
patterns of support for Israel
are a particularly important
topic these days.
So when word began to
spread in Jewish circles that
a poll commissioned by the
Anti-Defamation League
showed some disturbing
slippage, there was a fran-
Abe Foxman:
Low profile paid off.
tic quest to obtain clandes-
tine copies of the report, and
to draw portraits of an ADL
conspiracy to suppress the
data.
But ADL was playing its
own game Instead of releas-
ing the data, the group's
leaders took their informa-
tion directly to Israel's
leaders.
"We were not interested in
making a big story out of
this, or a big splash," said
Abe Foxman, the group's ex-
ecutive director. "That's one
reason we were very suc-
cessful."
In a visit early this month,
the ADL group met with a
wide range of leaders. "It
was a good experience," Mr.
Foxman said. "People
listened and cared, from the
prime minister on down. We
didn't come to them telling
them what to do; we simply
told them what our polls
showed, so they could factor
in that information when
they made decisions."
The delegation received a
less enthusiastic reception
from the Jerusalem Post,
which blasted the group for
joining the "blame Israel
chorus." The Post editorial
was based on leaks about the
poll's results.
The poll, which was con-
ducted in June — well before
Saddam Hussein reshuffled
the Middle East deck —
showed a sharp increase in
support for the Palestinian
cause. For the first time,
more than 50 percent of
Americans supported the es-
tablishment of a Palestinian
homeland.
The polling data was simi-
lar to results of a New York
Times/CBS poll released ear-
ly this month. But a poll
commissioned by the Ameri-
can Jewish Committee —
again, well before the Iraqi
assault on Kuwait — in-
dicated growing support for
Israel among the American
public.
The bottom line for deci-
sion makers in Washington
is that public opinion re-
mains highly volatile with
respect to the Middle East —
and that even though the
Persian Gulf situation has
diverted attention from the
Israeli- Palestinian conflict,
the longterm results of the
growing face-off with Iraq
will only serve to increase
that volatility.
Holocaust Museum
Gains Archive Access
It's been a productive
summer for the people at the
U.S. Holocaust Memorial
Museum.
Recently, the Holocaust
Memorial Council signed
agreements with the
governments of Rumania
and Bulgaria providing
access to long-buried ar-
chives. According to Michael
Berenbaum, the museum di-
rector, the agreements mean
that every Eastern Euro-
pean nation with the excep-
tion of Albania has now
signed agreements pro-
viding the Council with
access to World War 11 ar-
chives.
Mr. Berenbaum suggested
that the Bulgarian archives,
in particular, would provide
a treasure trove for Holo-
caust researchers.
"The Bulgarians saved
their own Jewish popula-
tion," he said. "But they
killed non-Bulgarian Jews.
It was one of the ironies of
the Holocaust, and it tells us
that the whole notion of
`righteous gentiles' is more
complex than we usually
think."
Quake Predictors May
Augur Jewish President
The 1990 off-year elections
are still a few months away,
but already political en-
thusiasts are actively
speculating about the 1992
presidential contest.
And one man who thinks
he has the key to the next
presidential sweepstakes is
a Jewish historian in Wash-
ington.
Allan J. Lichtman, a pro-
fessor at the American Uni-
versity, has devised a com-
plex system for predicting
the outcome of presidential
elections that, he says, is
almost infallible.
And, strangely enough,
Mr. Lichtman's system —
which is featured in his new
book, The 13 Keys to the
Presidency— is based on the
science of earthquake
prediction.
"It was developed through
an accidental meeting bet-
ween myself and the Soviet
geophysicist, Volodia I.
Keilis-Borok," Mr.
Lichtman said in a recent
interview. "He had de-
veloped mathematical
systems of earthquake
prediction. We developed the
idea that we could use simi-
lar processes to look at polit-
ical relationships."
In earthquake prediction,
Mr. Lichtman said, scien-
tists study the visible signs
of unseen geophysical
upheaval. They look for pat-
terns that help them
decipher the characteristics
of the physical environment
associated with earth-
quakes.
Mr. Lichtman applied a
similar process to the pat-
terns that help predict elec-
tion results.
"We studied every election
since 1860," he said.
"Eventually, we were able to
identify 13 keys —simple
yes-no questions that estab-
lish whether the conditions
favor the party in power or
not."
Those keys include in-
cumbency, whether or not
there is a serious contest for
the nomination, third-party
challenges and the state of
the economy.
One interesting outcome of
Mr. Lichtman's predictions
involves the possibility of a
Jewish president. The con-
ventional wisdom still sug-
gests that a Jew could not be
elected, a prediction not
supported by Mr. Lichtman's
system.
"According to the keys,
there could be a Jewish pres-
ident," he said. "What the
keys tell is that what's im-
portant is the state of the
country at the time of the
election. If there's a percep-
tion that the country is in
trouble, and the challenger
is Jewish, this system shows
that the challenger would
probably win."
Iraqi Invasion Alters
Interfaith Relations
The Iraqi invasion of
Kuwait may have a positive
impact on interfaith rela-
tions, according to a spe-
cialist in the ticklish area of
relations between Christian
groups and Jews.
According to Rabbi James
Rudin, director of inter-
religious affairs for the
American Jewish Com-
mittee, the Iraqi invasion
has altered the perspective
of church groups that have
tended to take a critical view
of lsrgel.
"Tnz Iraqi invasion was
like a flash of lightning,
clearing the air and illumi-
nating the terrain," he said.
"One thing it's illuminated
are the points we've been
making all along about
Saddam Hussein, about the
dangers facing Israel. Se-
cond, it's illuminated the
fact that while the Palestin-
ian issue must be solved, it is
not the primary cause of in-
stability in the region."
Church groups, too, tended
to criticize American
intervention in the Middle
East. "In certain church
quarters, there's been a
tendency to portray us as the
`heavy' on the block," Rabbi
Rudin said. "But now it's
clear that this country
worked effectively."
The Palestinian issue will
not go away, he cautioned.
But even when it returns to
center stage the terms of the
debate will be changed.
"When the Palestinian
question comes back as a
central motif, it will come
back in a different way. It
will no longer be 'if only
Israel does this or that.'
What's clear* to everybody
now is what we've been say-
ing all along: it's an ugly, dir-
ty neighborhood. It's not like
sharing a border with
Canada." 111
THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS
33
ATIO N A
Will Congress Increase
Aid To Israel Now?