I

vigorous and powerful pro-
Israel lobby; who can say
and do what Washington
feels unwilling or unable to
say and do?
If, as now seems likely,
Baker is expecting Britain
— and, perhaps, other Euro-
pean Community leaders —
to carry some of the burden
in attempting to coax the
various sides to the negotia-
ting table, Israel could be
facing a torrid time in its re-
lations with its "friends" on
both sides of the Atlantic.
Even before last week's
rupture, European disquiet
about Israel's failure to
make even the most
minimal concessions over
the future of the territories
had led to serious discus-
sions about a suspension of
European aid and trade. On
the diplomatic front, there
are now suggestions that
Arafat might be invited to
address a special session of
the European Community's
foreign ministers as a form
of compensation for last
week's set-back.
All this is strong meat, but
it may not be entirely dis-
agreeable to Washington,
which still feels constrained
by powerful lobbies from
translating its tough talk
into tough action.
Whatever the United
States might suggest to
Israel, it must always be
prepared to contend with the
possibility of a diplo-
matically phrased Israeli
retort, "What if we don't?"
The Europeans may be
better placed to provide an
answer, and from Washing-
ton's perspective, it may be
useful to be able to call on a
willing proxy to soften up
the hard-line government in
Jerusalem.
Increasingly, European
commentators are noting the
dramatic effect that econ-
omic sanctions have had on
breaking the resolve of the
South African regime; in-
creasingly, they are noting
that, like white South
Africa, Israel is heavily
dependent on foreign in-
vestment and access to
high levels of Western
technology.
President Bush has al-
ready noted that America is
not planning "to pick up our
marbles and go home." Yet,
while the suspension of talks
with the PLO may not be the
end of Washington's diplo-
matic involvement in Middle
East diplomacy, it does at
least signal the end of a par-
ticularly important phase.
The most likely explana-
tion for Washington's deci-
sion to disengage from Mid-
dle East diplomacy at this

point is simply that between
the new hard-line Israeli
government and the increas-
ingly fractious PLO, there
was little realistic prospect
of pushing the peace boat out
to sea.
At the same time,
however, Washington must
be aware that whatever
carrots and sticks Europe
proffers, it is unlikely to
provide adequate compensa-
tion for the failure of
Arafat's great gamble to win
a degree of respectability
and credibility with the
world's foremost super-
power.
The net result is that the
PLO and its moderate sup-
porters within the Arab
world, bearing a humiliating
diplomatic defeat, are likely
to be pushed ever further
into the arms of the radicals,
with all the potential danger
for regional conflict that
such a trend involves.
Washington may well be
calculating that only the
threat of a serious deteriora-
tion in the region will bring
the various sides to the
realization that the impasse
must be broken; that only
such dire circumstances will
make them amenable to con-
ciliation and compromise. At
that point, the United States
could return to the game and
usefully exert its muscle to
bring the disputants to the
negotiating table.
It is a high-risk game, but
one which may appeal to a
superpower which is now
able to act with virtual im-
punity. ❑

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Condemnation
Draws Praise

Warsaw (JTA) — The
American Jewish Congress
has expressed hope that
Eastern European political
and church leaders will
follow the example of Lech
Walesa's recent unequivocal
condemnation of anti-
Semitism.
"Your clear statement,
calling things by their
names, is an important con-
tribution to better Polish-
Jewish relations, based on
truth, " the AJCongress'
Warsaw representative,
Stanislaw Krajewski, wrote
to the Polish Solidarity
leader June 7.
"Your condemnation of
anti-Semitism will help in
the 'necessary,' as you have
written, defense against its
resurgence."
The letter was sent on
behalf of Robert Lifton, pres-
ident, and Henry Siegman,
executive director of the
AJCongress.

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