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34
FRIDAY, MAY 25, 1990
Shortage Of Water May Trigger
Next Middle East Conflagration
HELEN DAVIS
Foreign Correspondent
I
sraeli Prime Minister
Yitzhak Shamir has been
the recipient of little good
news in recent months, and
the message from a delega-
tion of 16 senior scientists
last week gave him no fresh
cause for comfort.
Israel is using up its water
reserve 15 percent faster
than it can be replenished
each year, and the senior
hydrologists, drawn from
major scientific institutions,
warned that years of over-
pumping ground water
resources is leading to a de-
terioration of both the quan-
tity and quality of Israel's
supplies.
There is an urgent need to
adopt drastic, emergency
measures, delegation mem-
bers told Shamir, even if this
involves such politically
sensitive decisions as cut-
ting back agricultural pro-
duction. The bottom line:
Unless such measures are
implemented, Israel will
face a "catastrophe" within
five years.
Israel is not alone among
Middle East states in facing
a water crisis. Warnings are
growing steadily louder,
both inside and outside the
region, that the next major
Middle East conflagration
will draw its inspiration not
from the Arab-Israeli con-
flict, the Palestinian prob-
lem, Islamic fundamen-
talism or any of the other
myriad rivalries, jealousies
and suspicions that
characterize relationships
within the region. The next
war, according to both politi-
cians and scientists, will be
over water.
A sign of the times was
provided earlier this year
when Turkey, the emerging
water "superpower" of the
region, unilaterally turned
off the flow of the Euphrates
in order to fill its new
Ataturk Dam.
The dam is the centerpiece
of an ambitious $21 billion
project which will eventual-
ly involve the creation of 21
new dams, 17 hydro-electric
plants and irrigation to
transform some 46,000 semi-
arid square miles of ancient
Mesapotamia into a new fer-
tile crescent.
The Turkish action drew a
response that was as swift as
it was unexpected: a short-
lived alliance between tradi-
Artwork from the Los Angeles Tmes by Barbara Cummings. Copyright o 1989, Barbara Cummings. Distributed by Los Angeles Tines Symficate.
tional arch- rivals Syria and
Iraq, both of which draw
water from the Euphrates
and both of which suffered
acute shortages, electrical
disruptions and crop failures
when the flow was halted.
Within weeks, the strained
relations approached break-
ing point, with headlines
appearing in both Syrian
and Iraqi newspapers warn-
ing of war unless water sup-
plies were resumed immedi-
ately. Just one month after
they stopped the flow, the
authorities in Ankara turn-
ed on the tap again.
Nevertheless, the harsh
facts of life are that Turkey's
far-sighted and ambitious
water projects could
ultimately cost Syria a dev-
astating 40 percent of its
Euphrates water, while Iraq
could lose up to 90 percent.
Concern about the region's
diminishing water supplies
in the face of a rapidly rising
demand — which is being
fueled by exploding popula-
tion numbers and the in-
creased needs of agriculture
and industry — has been
given dramatic expression in
the United States.
A 1987 State Department
report noted grimly that
"there will be insufficient
water to sustain Egypt's
population by the year 2000
unless dramatic conserva-
tion and management im-
provements are put into
place in the next few years."
More recently — and in
more apocalyptic terms —
the Washington-based
Center for Strategic and
International Studies warn-
ed that the Middle East was
standing on the edge of an-
other major resource crisis.
"Before the 21st century,"
noted a research paper, "the
struggle over limited and
threatened water resources
could sunder already fragile
ties among regional states
and lead to unprecedented
upheaval within the area."
Despite the warnings,
however, little has been
done to conserve existing
supplies; to apply those sup-
plies more efficiently and
economically; to establish
fresh sources that could
avert the predicted catas-
trophe.
The Syrian capital of
Damascus, which is without