GAZING INTO THE '90s
decade," said Steven M. Cohen,
the dean of Jewish pollsters, "it
will be a gradual drift away
from the Democrats instead of a
drift to the Republicans. Also,
on the congressional level, Jews
are as strongly committed as
ever to Democrats. But on the
presidential level, there is now a
two-thirds to one-third split in
favor of the Democrats. This is
clearly down from the high
levels of the mid-1960s."
While whites, in general, are
moving toward the GOP, Cohen
said that Jews doing the same
at a much slower pace than any
other white ethnic group.
The 1990s may also witness
movement. We're already begin-
ning to see some tensions
developing there."
As Jewish neo-conservatives'
links to the rest of the right
wane, Orenstein expects to see
major changes in Jewish
liberalism.
"Some of the fundamental
tenets of liberalism," he said,
"especially those dealing with
the role of government in socie-
ty, are changing. The past 10 or
15 years have convinced many
liberals that government is not
the major solution to a lot of
problems. So they're looking for
a new common ground."
Rabbi Irving "Yitz" Greenberg,
president of the New York-based
National Center for Learning
and Leadership, put it different-
ly: "Jews aren't dropping their
liberalism. It's healthy that
Jews are dominantly in the
liberal camp. But it's also
healthy that Jews now jump
back and forth more. I think
that's the kind of decade it's
going to be."
The New Activism
an erosion in the ranks of
Jewish neo-conservatives, whose
movement had a renaissance in
the middle of the 1980s. Jewish
conservatives' alliances with
other groups on the right often
centered around one critical
piece of common ground — the
perception that the Soviet
Union posed the single most
serious threat to America's
security. But the crumbling of
the Iron Curtain seems to be
crumbling that perception.
"Events in the Soviet Union
are particularly relevant to those
Jews who have been part of the
neo-conservative movement,"
said political scientist Norman
Orenstein of Washington's
American Enterprise Institute.
Politically conservative Jews'
bonds "to other elements of the
conservative movement," he
said, "such as Fundamentalist
Christians, have been heavily
based on the single basic issue
of communism. One of the
things we have known all along
is that many of these elements
are hostile to the Jewish
presence in the conservative
24
FRIDAY, JANUARY 5, 1990
Israel will remain the premier
political issue for American
Jews. But as the peace process
in the Middle East proceeds at
a maddeningly slow pace, Jews
will display a new readiness to
criticize Israeli policies.
And Rep. Howard Berman (D-
CA) expects a candidate's posi-
tion on Israel to still be "a
critical factor" in Jews' deci-
sions whether to back him.
"There may," said Berman, "be
more diversity on the most ap-
propriate positions regarding
Israel's options. But support
remains very strong on fun-
damental questions of Israel's
security."
Rep. Sam Gejdenson (D-CT)
called Jews' growing willingness
to criticize Israeli policies a
"maturation" process that will
eventually bolster the political
credibility of American Jews
and strengthen Israel's cause.
While U.S. Jews' alliances on
certain foreign policy issues will
realign, a new assertiveness will
evolve on several domestic
issues.
Already, Rep. Nita Lowey (D-
NY) perceives "a real diversifica-
tion" of Jews' political interests.
Groups, such as Hadassah, she
said, "which have not been
especially involved in political
affairs, are suddenly becoming
very involved. It's a noticeable
trend."
Lowey attributed this rise of
Jewish activism to the issue of
abortion, which has especially
generated a new political energy,
quite predictably, among Jewish
women.
Another issue that has
aroused Jews, said Lowey, is
child care.
Lowey expects that these
kinds of emotional issues will
revive Jews' liberalism in the
1990s — and that Jewish
women will lead the liberals'
charge.
Jews will also play an increas-
ingly prominent role in the
church-state battles that are
expected to be a major battle-
ground in the 1990s. As the
lines between church and state
continue to blur in America,
pollster Steven Cohen expects
Jews to continue insisting that
the two institutions be entirely
segregated.
"Church-state separation," said
Cohen, "will remain a matter of
security for Jews. -
Ethnic Strains
Jewish activists will also con-
tinue to fret about Jews' tradi-
tional alliance with blacks. Jesse
Jackson's rise in the Democratic
party, the increased influence of
Black Muslin Louis Farrakhan,
and continued allegations about
Israel's cooperation in South
African weapons development
have all strained black-Jewish
relations.
Before his recent difficulties,
Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) tried
to improve relations between
blacks and Jews.
'Tensions may also come from
increased competition for elec-
tive office. "As leaders of more
politicized ethnic groups think
about public office," said Rep.
Berman, "there is the potential
for more clashes between all
ethnic groups. In California, for
instance, the Latino community
is producing talented leaders
who will want to run for office,
and that could conflict with
blacks and Jews who want to do
the same."
Inter-ethnic strains may also
surface during reapportionment
in several states in 1992.
One more trend may disturb
some of the traditional equa-
tions in Jewish political life: Or-
thodox Jews are increasingly
organizing themselves to express
their values through political
involvement.
"Without doubt, the Orthodox
community is becoming a
powerful political force," said
Rep. Stephen J. Solarz (D-NY),
whose Brooklyn district includes
the largest concentration of Or-
thodox Jews in the country.
Often, said Solarz, the newly
assertive Orthodox groups take
positions similar to those of
traditional liberal Jewish
organizations, especially on a
"consensus issue,- such as
Soviet Jewry. But they oppose
liberals on certain social issues,
such as child care and abortion.
Overall, there is little chance
of declining Jewish political par-
ticipation in the 1990s. Stuart
Eizenstat, former domestic
policy adviser to President Jim-
my Carter, expects Jews'
political activity to rise.
Eizenstat referred to a geomet-
ric rise in the number of
political action committees
(PACs), and to a dramatic rise in
the number of Jews in Congress
and state legislatures.
While Eizenstat was certain
that Jews' "intensity and the
visibility" in politics will in-
crease, he suggested that the
major threat to Jews' political
clout stems from the same phe-
nomenon that worries rabbis —
assimilation.
More intermarriage and less
Jewish identity, he said, will
cause Jews to identify more
with their economic and profes-
sional peers, and less with their
ethnic and religious roots. The
ultimate danger from this trend,
said Eizenstat, is that Jews
"will lose their historic identifi-
cation with liberal and progres-
sive causes, which is strongly
rooted to the Jewish religion." 0