GAZING INTO THE '90s
1.11.11/MF

nation. And it is highly im-
probable that any conceivable
Arab coalition would be able to
dislodge or defeat her.
In the post-peristroika world,
the U.S. and USSR would have
less incentive to interfere in any
Arab-Israeli war. As the cold
war diminishes, militant interna-
tional Islam will emerge as a
major threat, both to the west
(in the form of terrorism) and to
the USSR, which will be increas-
ingly hard pressed to maintain
its hold over its heavily Muslim
eastern empire.
Israel may well come to be
regarded as a strategic asset in
this struggle, and in any event,
will find herself far less
diplomatically isolated than she
has been since the Six Day War
of 1967. The Russians will also
have an additional incentive to
cultivate Jerusalem; their need
for American financial aid will
require Congressional approval,
and the Soviets, who believe in
the myth of Jewish power, will
be loathe to do anything to
upset the "Jewish lobby" in
Washington.
If this scenario occurs by the
end of the century, Israel will be
a larger country with a Jewish
population close to five million,
and an Arab minority approach-
ing two million. The bitter issue
of the territories, which has
divided the country for 25 years,
would be resolved, and Israel
could focus its energies on its
internal problems.
The most acute of these will
be the relationship between
Orthodox and secular Jews.
Most Soviet immigrants are not
Orthodox: after 70 years under
Communism, many are the chil-
dren of non-Jewish mothers and
do not conform to the Talmudic
definition of Jewishness. Their
inclusion in the electorate will
almost certainly weaken the
clout of the Orthodox political
By the year 2000, however, the
Russians will be more or less
settled in, and Israel will begin
reaping economic dividends
from them. The many Soviet-
trained engineers, scientists and
technicians will accelerate the
already discernible trend toward
high-tech, knowledge-intensive
industry. By the end of the cen-
tury, Israel will be much more
industrialized than it is today.
At the same time, many young
Israelis who study engineering
parties. Three likely results:

• Laws will permit civil mar-
riage and divorce (which are now
banned).
• Who Is A Jew legislation
will be shelved.
• By the year 2000, Israel will
have public transportation on
Shabbat and its stores will re-
main open. Saturday in Israel
will resemble Sunday in the U.S.
and most European countries.

The New Ethnicity

Mass aliyah will change not
only Israel's religious status
quo, but its ethnic composition.
One of Israel's major social
developments of the past 20
years has been the growth of its
Oriental communities; Jews
from Asia and North Africa,
and their descendants, now com-
prise slightly more than half of
Israel's population. Their
political and cultural influence
has increased with their
numbers.
The Russian immigration will
reverse this trend. By the year
2000, Israel will be blonder,
more blue-eyed and Ashkenazi
than it is today. Russian and
Yiddish words will displace
Arabic in street slang. And,
more significantly, Russian im-
migrants will replace Oriental,
mostly North African, Israelis
as the chief recipients of the na-
tion's limited social welfare
resources.
The cost of settling one
million immigrants will be stag-
gering — billions of dollars.
Some of this will come from
foreign contributions, but most
of it will be raised in Israel
through higher taxes and special
levies. The middle class will feel
the pinch, but the poor will suf-
fer most. Inevitably, funds need-
ed for housing and jobs for the
Russians will come at their ex-
pense. There will be ethnic ten-
sion early in the decade, and
perhaps even sporadic violence.
and medicine will have to go
abroad to find work.
The job market will not be
the only overcrowded area. New
neighborhoods will spring up in
Jerusalem, let Aviv and their
suburbs; and a new city will be
founded, probably near Modiin,
in the Judean Hills. Apartment
prices will skyrocket. Traffic will
jam the already packed streets,
and work will begin on a sub-
way system for Tel Aviv.
Ironically, as Israel becomes
more Russian, it will also

become more American. A cadre
of young politicians and
technocrats, familiar with the
United States, will push for
privatization of government-
owned industry, less central con-
trol and a free-market economy.
The socialist ideals of the
Zionist pioneers will give way to
Reagan/Thatcher-style conser-
vatism. Israel will become a
more efficient, prosperous coun-
try — but the already signifi-
cant gap between wealthy and
poor will grow.
By the turn of the century, all
Israeli homes will be linked to

cable TV and state-run televi-
sion will lose its monopoly. By
bringing American programs in-
to every living room, satellite
broadcasts will promote Ameri-
can-style consumerism, values
and fads. Israelis will smoke less
and exercise more, learn about
sex from Geraldo and inter-
personal relations from Oprah,
see the world from the perspec-
tive of Dan Rather and Peter
Jennings. The most popular tele-
vision program will be "The
Lifestyles of the Rich and
Famous.-

Another, more important, for-
eign import will be a new elec-
toral system. By the end of the
decade, the Knesset will be
elected on the basis of consti-
tuencies instead of the present
national at-large balloting. This
will reduce the number of politi-
cal parties from 12 to three or
four: Likud, Labor, a united
Orthodox party and, perhaps,
an Arab party. Politicians will
be younger, better educated,
slicker and more responsive to
the voters. A new, post-Holo-
caust generation of leaders will
emerge: Dan Meridor, Moshe
Katzav, Benyamin Netanyahu
and Ehud Olmert on the right,
and Motta Gur, Haim Ramon,
Ehud Barak and Uzi Baram on
the left.
By the start of the 21st cen-
tury, Israel will be over 50 years
old — well past the age of in-
nocence. If the miracle of Soviet
immigration comes to pass,
Israel will fulfill its Zionist role
as the refuge of world Jewry.
With the annexation of the West
Bank, it will also achieve its
ultimate territorial goal, as well.
The dreams of the great pioneer
visionaries will have been large-
ly realized.
Will this happen? Perhaps.
But a cautionary note is in
order. A friend, who studied the
theory of prediction at MIT and
practiced it for the General
Staff of Israel's army, once told
me that, in long-range forecast-
ing, the only certainty is that
no prediction will be exactly
right. The Jewish sages of old
put it more bluntly: "When the
Second 'Temple was destroyed,
the gift of prophecy was given
to fools." El

In Washington, New Alliances,
New Politics

The end of the Iron Curtain may also mean the
end of Jewish neo-conservatism.

JAMES DAVID BESSER

Washington Correspondent

I

here are hints that a
complex series of
changes may alter the
contours of Jews' politi-
cal involvement in the
new decade. Among these are
new alliances, new issues — and

new tensions between certain
ethnic groups.
During the Reagan era, the
most discussed issue in Jewish
politics was the erosion of Jews'
traditional ties to the Demo-
cratic party. But most observers
now say that the shift was not
as great as expected.
"If there is a change in Jews'

party affiliation in the next

THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS

23