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December 29, 1989 - Image 43

Resource type:
Text
Publication:
The Detroit Jewish News, 1989-12-29

Disclaimer: Computer generated plain text may have errors. Read more about this.

Chagime

Jihad, Oppressed of the Ear-
th and others — were formed
to create a new dimension in
religious terrorism: hijack-
ings, assassinations, car-
bombings and hostage-
taking.
Once again, the Western
powers appeared powerless
in the face of a-new threat as
they fumbled and faltered
for strategies and policies to
deal with the fundamen-
talists.
Meanwhile, as the decade
drew to a close, so too did the
Gulf War. Within a year of
its end Khomeini was dead,
leaving his shattered,
bewildered countrymen to
heal their wounds and re-
assess their place in the
world.
Iran has by no means
abandoned its radical
dogma, the mullahs still
wield awesome power and
thousands of dissidents are
executed each year for
offenses both real and imag-
ined. But much of the steam
has gone out of the revolu-
tion. There is, moreover, a
notable shift in emphasis
under Iran's new ruler, Ali
Akhbar Hashemi Rafsan-
jani, who is regarded in the
West as being more
pragmatic, more moderate
than his predecessor or, in-
deed, any of Khomeini's
other potential successors.
Islamic fundamentalism
appears to be on the retreat,
but it is still not possible to
close the chapter on this
phenomenon. Militant fun-
damentalism remains the
last refuge of despairing
masses, and regimes
throughout the Middle East
must watch their backs as a
religious radicalism con-
tinues to give cause for seri-
ous concern.
Rafsanjani may be attemp-
ting to lead Iran cautiously
toward a more respectable
place in the community of
nations, but he is unlikely to
be able to extinguish the
fundarrientalist flame where
it has already been lit.
Only last weekend, a
senior Israeli military
source noted ironically that
the burgeoning fundamen-
talist Hamas movement in
the West Bank and Gaza
Strip was a matter of com-
mon concern to both Israel
and the PLO.
Indeed, the militant, un-
compromising fundamen-
talists are likely to represent
a potent security threat to
Israel in the foreseeable
future, while they simulta-

neously erode the PLO's
claim to be the sole repre-
sentative of the Palestinian
people.
The question that will
dominate the minds of polit-
ical analysts and military
strategists in Jerusalem
over the next decade,
however, will be much the
same as that which preoc-
cupied them for most of the
past four decades: the poten
tial external threat facing
the Jewish state.
While the activities of
Palestinian nationalist and
fundamentalist groups will
continue to challenge
Israel's security and cause
social dislocation, the over-
riding threat to Israel will
remain the huge,
sophisticated military
machines in Syria and its
rival Iraq.
The Gulf War provided the
Iraqis with a wealth of battle
experience and equipped
them to fully exploit the
most advanced warfare
technology that their super-
power patron was able to
offer. The war has also left
Iraq with a legacy of some
one million men under arms.
The threat of chemical
warfare, involving medium-
range ballistic missiles
which are now in the ar-
mories of both Syria and
Iraq, is likely to exercise
Israeli minds for much of the
coming decade.
The great imponderable is
the extent to which the
Soviet Union — given Presi-
dent Gorbachev's continued
political health — will sup-
port its Middle East friends.
On the face of it, Moscow's
Arab allies have little cause
for optimism. Gorbachev,
wearing his open, pragmatic
face, has flatly told Syria's
President Hafez Assad to
abandon his dream of inflic-
ting a military defeat on
Israel and instead seek a po-
litical solution to the con-
flict.
In light of Gorbachev's ap-
parent indifference to the
fate of his erstwhile allies in
Eastern Europe — who, after
all, represented the front
line of the Soviet Union's
defense — neither Syria nor
Iraq can have much reason
to expect that the Soviet
leader will continue to sup-
port his Middle East
satellites in attaining goals
which he does not believe to
be realistic.
That could be good news or
bad for Israel. 0

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THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS

43

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