I ANALYSIS I
Foot Specialist.
Syria Threat Receding?
Israeli Experts Disagree
LOUIS RAPOPORT
Israel Correspondent
D
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20
FRIDAY, DECEMBER 22, 1989
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espite a flurry of
reports that Syria is
beginning to
moderate its stand as
Israel's most intransigent
enemy, there have been no
direct overtures from
Damascus and no sizeable
military cutbacks, according
to informed Israeli govern-
ment sources.
In fact, Syrian troop
movements in southern
Lebanon recently elicited a
sharp warning from Defense
Minister Yitzhak Rabin.
Syria expert Dr. Yossi
Olmert is skeptical of
American reports that the
Syrians are ready to join the
Middle East peace process.
"Syria is still the biggest
threat to Israel," Olmert
says. "Whenever [former
secretary of State] Cyrus
Vance or Jimmy Carter
comes back from talks with
President Assad in
Damascus, they declare that
there has been a softening of
Syria's position. We have yet
to see it."
Olmert does believe the
reports that the USSR is in
arms it provides to
Damascus annually, "but I
see no signs of Syrian
military cutbacks."
But according to an un
published research paper
from the Israel International
Institute in Jerusalem,
Syria has reduced its arms
spending over the last three-
to-four years. The paper's
main conclusion, according
to news reports, is that
Israel could reduce its own
defense spending substan-
tially and thus encourage
three of its neighbors —
Syria, Egypt and Jordan —
to do the same. The four
countries share at least one
thing in common — they are
all in severe economic
straits.
So, too, is the Soviet
Union. And now, the Soviets
are publicly telling their
Syrian client, "Give up the
dream of military parity
with Israel."
In the last decade, the
Soviets supplied the Syrians
with some $20 billion worth
of arms, including
sophisticated MiG fighter-
bombers and missiles. Now,
as a result of the Soviet-
American treaty, Moscow is
barred from supplying its
clients with intermediate-
range ballistic missiles.
Dr. Yossef Olmert:
Skeptical of reports.
This has not stopped
Damascus from seeking such
weaponry elsewhere. China
is reportedly selling Syria
about 150 M-9 missiles with
a range of 360 miles, which
could reach all of Israel.
Although there is a gen-
eral consensus among Israeli
leaders that Syria remains
the main threat to Israel,
there is a sharp divergence
of opinion over whether the
defense budget can be cut if
Syria also reduces arms
spending.
Bank of Israel Governor
Michael Bruno, a leading
economist who is close to
Finance Minister Shimon
Peres and the dovish wing of
Labor, recently called for a
slash in the defense budget,
based on the unconfirmed
reports of Syrian cutbacks.
Otherwise, he said, higher
inflation may result.
But Bruno and the Labor
left, led by Peres' Deputy
Finance Minister Yossi
Beilin, have not been able to
budge either the Likud
leaders or the conservative
Laborites led by Rabin, who
is adamently opposed to any
budget cuts in his ministry.
The "overtures" from
Damascus over the last few
weeks include a variety of
reports.
Cyrus Vance, stopping in
Israel after a visit to Syria,
said that Assad's attitude
toward talks with Israel on
the question of the Golan
Heights has definitely
softened. An Egyptian
magazine reported that
Syria might accept Soviet-
e and American-sponsored
talks with Israel. And
Argentina's President
Carlos Menem, who is of
Syrian origin, has offered to