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tional and leadership net-
works that will sever their
present reliance on the Or-
thodox community.
"Both groups will call
themselves Jews, but in
terms of institutional,
philanthropic and other
dimensions of Jewish life,
they will be almost
separate." Ultimately, mar-
riage between Orthodox and
non-Orthodox Jews will
become increasingly prob-
lematic.
According to Tobin's fig-
ures, Jews from the Nor-

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5: •

Gary Tobin:
Predicting the future.

theast will move in substan-
tial numbers to the Sun Belt.
By 2050, the Jewish popula-
tion of Florida and Califor-
nia over 55 and under 35,
now 1.5 million, could top
2.2 million.
Because Jews of the West
tend to be more assimilated
while the Jews of Florida
tend to be less involved in
community activities, this
movement of Jews to the
Sun Belt could have serious
implications for the quality
of the American Jewish
community in the future.
The last major change in
American Jewish life that
Tobin points to in his study
is political. As Jews become
more secular, more assimi-
lated and less centralized,
they will become more con-
servative.
"At the present, we are in
a period of rebirth as well as
assimilation. We're on the
upside right now. The baby
boomers are now discovering
their cultural roots. Those
becoming involved are more
intense in their observance.
It's the next generation that
I worry about," Tobin said.
"We need a lot more pro-
grams for under-affiliated
populations — programs to
increase conversion and sin-
gles programs."

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THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS

25