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Perestroika Puzzle:
Is It Good For Jews?

ZE'EV CHAFETS

Israel Correspondent

A

s perestroika sweeps
through Eastern
Europe, Israelis are
greeting the unusual events
in Moscow, Berlin and War-
saw with the usual question:
Is it good for the Jews?
For the moment, the an-
swer seems to be a qualified
yes.
Traditionally, Israeli
policy toward the Soviet
Union and its satellites has
had three objectives: Unfet-
tered Jewish immigration,
normal diplomatic relations
and a reduction of Eastern
bloc support for radical Arab
regimes.
This agenda, which only a
few years ago seemed unat-
tainable, now appears real-
istic. But Israeli officials and
analysts are aware that it
May carry a considerable
price.
The best news is the
change in the Soviet emigra-
tion policy. Most Russian
Jews are now free to leave,
and many are coming to
Israel. According to Minister
of Immigrant Absorption
Yitzhak Peretz, perhaps
200,000 Soviet Jews will ar-
rive within the next three
years.
Such a wave of aliayh
would strengthen national
morale and have beneficial
long term economic and
demographic consequences;
but in the-short run, the cost
of settling the newcomers
will be steep — an estimated
$3 billion or more.
Officials here expect that
sometime after the beginn-
ing of 1990, Russian Jews
will be able to fly directly
from Moscow to Tel Aviv on
special chartered flights. __
Such flights are a sign of
the growing normality
which now typifies the long-
troubled relationship bet-
ween Israel and the Com-
munist bloc. Following the
Six Day War, the Soviet
Union and its satellites,
with the exception of
Romania, broke diplomatic
relations with Israel. For the
next 20 years, Israeli con-
tacts with the Eastern bloc
were sporadic and often
secret. But that, too, is
changing.
Earlier this year, ,Hungary
became the first Warsaw
Pact nation to re-establish
full diplomatic relations,
and Foreign Ministry offi-
cials expect that Poland will
soon follow suit.

The USSR itself has had
consular relations with
Israel for the past two years,
and most foreign policy ex-
perts believe that it is only a
matter of time before the
Russians re-open their em-
bassy in Tel Aviv.
This trend represents a
victory for Israeli diplomacy,
which has refused to grant
political concessions in
return for renewed ties.
"Our position has always
been that we were prepared
to re-establish relations,"
says Yeshiahu Anug, Depu-
ty Director of the Israeli
Foreign Ministry. "What's
new is the Russian attitude.
We haven't done anything to
bring it about."
Along with diplomatic re-
lations there has been a
perceptible softening of
Soviet policy toward Israel.
Radio Moscow still beams
anti-Zionist broadcasts to
the Middle East, but there
are signs that the Russians

•

"The Soviets still
support the PLO,
but we have the
feeling that the old
cordiality isn't
there."

are no longer committed to
an unrelenting propaganda
campaign against the
Jewish State.
Recently, for example, the
Soviet Union broke prece-
dent and abstained on the
annual Arab-sponsored
resolution to expell Israel
from the UN General
Assembly.
Some Israeli officials
believe that the Russians
are now interested in
moderating their more
radical Arab clients.
"The Soviets still support
the PLO," says Anug. "But
we have the feeling that the
old cordiality isn't there."
Officials also note that
Moscow has decreased the
amount--but not the quality--
of the arms they supply to
Syria, its principle Arab
client.
Despite these de-
velopments, however, Israeli
leaders are wary of pre-
mature optimism.
"I don't see any real shift
in Soviet support for the
Syrians," says Eliahu Ben
Elissar, chairman of the
Knesset Foreign Affairs and
Security Committee. "They
still supply them with ad-
vanced weapons, and there

41