CAPITOL REPORT
What Price Progress
For U.S. In Mideast?
WOLF BLITZER
Washington Correspondent
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FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 17, 1989
resident George Bush
and Secretary of State
James Baker anxious-
ly want to see some serious
diplomatic movement in ad-
vancing the notion of an
Israeli-Palestinian dialogue.
But are they prepared to pay
the necessary price?
Baker, in particular, has
been devoting a considerable
amount of his limited time to
that very objective. Yet ex-
actly a year after Bush
handily defeated his
Democratic presidential op-
ponent, Massachusetts Gov.
Michael Dukakis, the pro-
spects for success do not ap-
pear very impressive and it
remains unclear exactly how
far the administration is
prepared to go to push the
peace process forward.
The administration now
faces a major decision in its
strategy toward the Middle
East. There is a widespread
sense in Washington that
Bush and Baker are at a
turning point.
Will the administration, in
the face of significant pro-
cedural and substantive
differences dividing Israel
and the Palestinians, quietly
walk away from the problem
by delegating it to lower-
level American func-
ti-onaries? Or will
Washington, despite the ge-
nuine political risks, get
more actively involved in
narrowing those differences
at the highest levels?
Administration insiders,
while still uncertain of the
answer, suggest that there
are some basic differences
between the White House
and the State Department,
the latter being considerably
more prepared to address the
Arab-Israeli problem ag-
gressively.
White House officials,
understandably worried
about the many other press-
ing foreign and doemstic
problems on the U.S. agenda
and convinced that the
likelihood of success in the
Middle East is remote, at
best, would sooner
withdraw.
What is clear to all con-
cerned is that without a very
active, high-profile U.S. role,
whatever small chances of
success in implementing the
Israel Cabinet's May 14 pro-
posal for Palestinian elec-
tions on the West Bank and
Gaza there may be, would
simply dwindle to virtually
nil. Only Washington, of
course, can effectively nudge
both sides to the bargaining
table; that has been the case
in the past and it will be the
case in the near future.
Bush, personally rather
experienced in the ways of
the Middle East, is certainly
aware of this fundamental
fact. But he is gun-shy and
coy, much more so than
President Bush: Gun shy, coy.
-
Baker. By all accounts, he
will move ahead only if the
secretary of state actively
encourages that approach.
Baker, right now, is the
key U.S. player. He has won
a grudging and conditional
Israeli yes to his five-point
framework proposal. But he
knows that that is not
enough to claim victory. He
is still waiting for an Egyp-
tian (and PLO) reply. And he
is bracing for an equally
grudging and conditional
yes from them.
Once both sides have for-
mally outlined their posi-
tions, Baker and his team of
aides will have to decide ex-
actly how far apart the two
are. Indications are that the
gap will remain very wide,
although with some serious
American sprodding, it will
not necessarily be un-
bridgeable.
As far as the Middle East
is concerned, the peace pro-
cess remains the preoccupa-
tion of senior administration
officials. They are not pay-
ing all that much attention
to other background noises
— either good or bad for
Israel.
Thus, they have started
largely to ignore the steady
stream of angry reports from
the U.S. Consulate in
Jerusalem about Israel's