The Most Exciting Event of the Year! awl Ivy lawl to/ Ow saw& Wo olawstWas - ta 71IV 41°1.1' Where does all this leave the Middle East in general and Israel in particular? There is, as yet, no definitive answer, but clearly the dimensions of the Israeli-Arab conflict are in the process of a radical revision in Washington and Moscow. Five key factors have con- tributed to this re-assessment: • The threat of a full-scale Middle East conflict has been dramatically reduced as a consequence of perceived Soviet reluctance to support its allies in any such military endeavor. of positions • The Washington and Moscow are now closer to each other than to their allies on what should constitute a resolution to the conflict. • Given their unity of pur- pose and their determination to reduce regional tensions, the superpowers are unlikely to be dragged to the brink of confrontation (as they were in the 1973 Yom Kippur War) even if such a conflict were to erupt. • While militant Islamic fundamentalism continues to threaten the stability and peace of a number of Middle East states, not least Israel, it signally failed to win a decisive victory in the Gulf War. Moreover, its principal apostle, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, is dead and his successor, Ali Akhbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, is pur- suing a more pragmatic path, seeking accommodations that will allow Iran to return to the community of nations. • The highly emotive and strategic factor of oil has dramatically diminished as a weapon in the Arab arsenal. Indeed, it is the producers rather than the consumers who will suffer most in the event of another full-blown Middle East conflict. All this does not mean that lions are about to lie down with lambs and that the threat of a fresh Arab-Israeli war has been eliminated. It does not mean that Syria's Hafez Assad will not make one final, desperate, all- out push to retrieve some of his lost territory (and honor) or that his hated rival, Iraq's Saddam Hussein, will not deploy his bloated forces against Israel in an attempt to "realize the Arab dream" and, by the way, seize the leadership of the Arab world. Now, however, Arab leaders will have to factor into their equations the cold, harsh fact that in any such future military engagement, they will almost certainly be on their own. They will not be able to count on an infusion of "military advisers" from their superpower patron or on an automatic arms re-supplies. The only shield that will protect them from certain, massive Israeli retaliation will be the inevitable, predic- table stream of United Na- tions resolutions. All this is very much of a mixed blessing for Israel: while the new international order might significantly deter Arab leaders from em- barking on direct, full-scale military adventures, they may now be moved to increase their employment of proxies and terrorists whose finger- prints are less easy to detect. This would have the dual ef- fect of creating a moving, often invisible, target which Israel's military brass would be unable to deal with effec- tively and decisively; at the same time, it would con- siderably increase the danger of what has become known as the "Lebanonization" of the conflict. Yet another, longer term, danger for Israeli leaders is that unless they can somehow come to terms with the Palestinians and reduce the intensity of the intifada, which shows no sign of going away and threatens to broaden the conflict, they are liable to face the combined diplomatic pressure of the United States and the Soviet Union. This could well take the form of an international peace conference convened by the superpowers who, despair- ing of bilateral or multilateral attempts to solve the conflict, decide to impose a settlement on the combatants. Such a settlement is likely to satisfy no one, least of all Israel, which will undoubted- ly be weakened territorially. However, reinforced by the support of the international community and by the threat of international sanctions, it could prove to be irresistible. Whether or not Fukuyama's assessment is correct, there is no doubt whatsoever that the interna- tional political order is undergoing a quiet revolution and that, sooner or later, the nations of the Middle East will feel its effects. J NE pi g IMMING t i l The Jewish National Fund Council cordially invites you to attend our 17th Annual Auction to be held Sunday, September 17, 1989 Temple Beth El 7400 Telegraph Road - Birmingham when we bestow upon Sherman and Mary Shapiro ... You will have an opportunity to participate in our best Auction ever with hundreds of items to include: • 1990 Chevrolet Lumina (supplied by Dexter Chevrolet) • Round trip to Israel for two • Originals by Ray Frost Fleming and Alexander Dobkin • Tigers Fantasy Camp • Restaurant & merchandise gift certificates • Gold & diamond jewelry • Small appliances • Shopping sprees • Beauty services • Furs • Enchanted weekends • Designer handbags Live Auction - 8:15 Blue Light Auction - 6:30 p.m. Donation: Purchase of one tree ($7.00) Auctioneer : Richard Nucian Sweet Table For Further Information and tickets, Call Jewish National Fund, 557-6644 SAVE FROM 20% TO 50%* MARV SAYS Oriental Rugs Today's Pleasure Tomorrow's °Treasure 251 Merrill Birmingham (313) 644-7311 2915 Breton Grand Rapids (1-800-622-RUGS) Contemporary 7% Women's Foshions FABU FALL FASI-110 CUSTOM WALL MIRROR SPECIALISTS ( TUB & SHOWER ENCLOSURES MIRRORED BIFOLD OR SLIDING DOORS MOBIL AUTO GLASS SERVICE INSULATED GLASS REPLACEDJ Arriving ,11/6 855-4464 Hunters Square • Farmington Hills We are winning. • TABLE TOPS • STORM DOORS & WINDOWS • PATIO DOOR WALLS REPLACED • STORMS & SCREENS REPAIRED VISIT OUR SHOWROOM 4 101.1031. *Suggested List Price • • • GLASS & AUTO TRIM CUSTOM WALL MIRRORS TIRES A ACCESSORIES 353-2501 SOUTIWIELD: 24777 Telegreph Other locations: Wayne and Lincoln Park ❑ THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS 37