I OPINION CONTENTS Outside Forces May Impact Mideast Talks AARON LERNER A n underlying assump- tion made by advo- cates of territorial compromise for Israel is that negotiated guarantees can somehow take the place of security. We are approaching a watershed period both within the Middle East and in the world in general. Changes in the offing, totally independent of the Arab- Israeli conflict, may have a profound effect on the viabili- ty of a negotiated guarantee. At some point in the near future, King Hussein of Jor- dan will die from causes natural or otherwise. Who or what will replace this monar- chy is anybody's guess. There is no question that the large armed Palestinian population in Jordan would take the demise of the king as an op- portunity to take over the country. The Hashemite military force which has been loyal to King Hussein will want to save its own skin. It will try Just as the future of the Middle East is uncertain, so is the future of the great powers. to do this by either capitulat- ing to Palestinian forces or carrying out a preemptive bloodbath which would make "Black September" seem like a picnic. Either approach will most likely result in the long run in a Palestinian- controlled state in Jordan. The Syrians, who view Jor- dan as being part of Greater Syria, may enter the fray to stake out their claim to the territory. The last time Syria invaded Jordan they backed off only when faced by an Israeli mobilization. The current regime in Egypt is being propped up by American-sponsored food sub- sidies. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is pushing Egypt to reduce the "bread and circuses" and there is no guarantee that the American support will con- tinue indefinitely. Along with the economic crisis and runaway population growth, the odds are at least even that Islamic fundamentalists will take over Egypt. Aaron Lerner is a member of Detroit's Orthodox Jewish Community. The Syrian economy also is in shambles. The iron fist of Assad (a member of a minor- ity group himself) so far has managed to suppress rebellious forces in his country but there is no telling how long he will remain in power. With the Iran-Iraq war con- cluded there are huge military forces on both sides left with nothing to do, and manpower far in excess of the active forces which even the U.S. could muster for action in the area. Iraq may renew its conflict with Syria or alternatively all of these countries may opt to focus their energies against Israel. The Saudis had. their own bloodbath suppressing a revolt of Islamic fundamen- talists in Mecca. With in- creasing economic strains on Saudi Arabia, Islamic funda- mentalists may succeed in spearheading a revolution or place the Saudi government in the position that they have to seek foreign adventures (e.g. attacks against Israel) to shift the focus away from local problems. Just as the future of the Middle East is uncertain, so is the future of the great powers. The U.S.S.R. is under ex- treme pressure. Gorbachev's liberalization program ap- pears to be already faltering in its race against time to significantly improve the Soviet economy. The union itself is falling apart as many states begin moves to break off. China is emerging as a ma- jor power which may very well transcend the U.S.S.R. in influence and importance in the Middle East. Despite this growth, China faces intense internal disenchantment due to inflation, corruption and a failure to provide the majority of the population with bene- fits from the economic liberalization. And what about the U.S.? While the American government is stable, to date the U.S. has had a poor record of honoring its security com- mitments in the crunch. In 1967, the American reaction to the closing of the Straits of Tiran by Egypt was to conve- niently forget their written assurances to Israel to keep the route open. In the late '60s, when a U.S.-sponsored security agreement between Israel and Egypt was grossly violated by Egypt, the Continued on Page 12 24 CLOSE-UP Images Of Israel JACK EISENBERG A photographic look at Israel's people on her 41st birthday. 57 BUSINESS Legacy Of Color RENEE GLOVINSKY From house painting to $20 million in annual business for Mercury Paints. LOOKING BACK Down Memory Lane 61 WENDY ROLLIN Visiting the Old Neighborhood isn't easy with your 13-year-old. INSIGHT Keeping The Flame 64 ARTHUR J. MAGIDA Jehan Sadat continues to guard her husband's memory and vision. 77 ENTERTAINMENT 24 By Dint Of Fate RITA CHARLESTON Comedian Marty Brill has turned tragedy into a brilliant career. TEENS Making A Discovery 105 Area teens are learning about more than Israel during a semester away. 110 LIFESTYLES 61 New Neighbor CARLA JEAN SCHWARTZ Mikhail Kogan struggled out of Russia and is struggling in Detroit. DEPARTMENTS 32 38 41 42 44 48 52 Inside Washington Background Community Crossword Synagogues Education Sports 72 74 92 96 112 118 150 For Seniors Here's To Fine Arts For Women Engagements Births Obituaries CANDLELIGHTING 105 8:19 p.m. May 5, 1989 Sabbath ends May 6 9:25 p.m. THE DETROIT JEWISH NEWS 7